Breedon - a materials supplier Buy suggests Chris Bailey

Conroy Gold – Share Talk - sordid ramping at the bottom end of AIM. Tom Winnifrith, The Sheriff of AIM, writes HERE

I see the housebuilders just got another share price stuffing on fears that the Help to Buy policy (which I have lampooned recently here) might come to an end and that updates from Barratt Developments (BDEV) and Berkeley Group (BKG) have hardly reignited the shares despite all sorts of 'record results' comments from the former. Well when the average house price is around six times income (and a way higher multiple in London) then value there is not. However, we do have a housing shortage, which correctly is a theme to be looking to invest into. Far more interesting than the margin-at-risk housebuilders is a materials supplier...

Sirius Minerals – announcement includes “significant steps forward for the business”… so why a share price decline?. Reviewed HERE

... Like Breedon (BREE), which fortunately just came out with some numbers. Some of the metrics were a little messy due to the busy last year the company has had, especially regarding its first non-UK deal with the acquisition (which included a money raising) of Lagan Group in Ireland, as well as an asset swap with Tarmac. More on this below but what particularly strikes me with Breedon - a supplier of aggregates, asphalt and ready-mixed concrete - is that not only can't you build houses without their help, but that the still burgeoning infrastructure spend is another big positive structural theme up its sleeve. Certainly earlier in the year, the weather has not helped but when an analyst meeting kicks off with 'we focus on cash' they get a natural tick in my stock selection box, because cashflow is gospel.

Investor fear and Centrica, DixonsCarphone and McCarthy & Stone. Read more from Chris Bailey HERE

Overall the business has pushed forward despite these challenges although with the Lagan deal there is a little bit of 'underlying' commentary, but a 7% rise in earnings per share during the first half says it all. Pricing power remains positive - hence the cashflow comment above. It continues to expect to offset any input cost increases it faces via higher prices. Breedon came onto my radar earlier in the year following the Lagan deal which, at the time, was done at an equivalent of about a quarter of its EV for an asset which (with anticipated synergies) will be high 20%s of the new combined business. The Lagan deal - which adds diversification scope from Ireland (where the outlook is stronger than the UK with 'Brexit' mentioned as a risk/challenge) as well as a good asset base and material asphalt capability - has bedded down very well in the four months since deal completion. At the time of the deal they anticipated that it would be 'double-digit earnings accretive' in its first year.

Trafalgar Property – full-year results: “well placed to deliver…”. Really? Nigel Somerville, the Deputy Sheriff of AIM, writes HERE

Back to cashflow. At the time of the Lagan deal I did a bit of maths and given that it expects leverage to fall to less than one times EBITDA by 2020, that probably means debt at/around £150 million which equates to a cool £230 million of debt reduction in a couple of years or so which equates to over a 8% free cash flow yield...hence the cash flow comments above. This is undoubtedly the major attraction of the name shorter-term, augmented medium-term by the opportunities from the Lagan and Tarmac deals to help boost margins from low double digit to closer to 15%. The shares have drifted down over the last year but I like this one. Statically you can find cheaper shares today but mix in cash flow and the asset backing of nearly 900 million tonnes of reserves and resources and the story is much more interesting. Give me Breedon's range of infrastructure and construction inputs than the housebuilders any day of the week. I would buy here anticipating a return to the 90p+ highs of 2017 and a bit more.

The Roma at the Court House in Kalamata & Greek indifference. Photo article from TomWinnifrith.com HERE

Filed under: Breedon, BREE, Conroy Gold, Share Talk, Sirius Minerals, Chris Bailey, Trafalgar Property

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02/21/2019

Yourgene - debt cleared; this is an amazing deal (plus comment on Hardman) from Tom Winnifrith

02/20/2019

Whitbread has a plan and Restaurant Group patently does not says Chris Bailey

02/15/2019

Thoughts on The US Market Juggernaut - and Tesla & IQE - from Lucian Miers

02/14/2019

Ariana Resources - Nigel Somerville updates on buy tip for 2019

02/13/2019

Is the Petrofac share price collapse a good buying or trading opportunity? Gary Newman reviews...

02/12/2019

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02/11/2019

Thomas Cook - not buying its holidays but still liking its shares says Chris Bailey

02/08/2019

Union Jack Oil - various potential share price catalysts by HotStockRockets

02/07/2019

Centrica - good total return value? Chris Bailey reviews

02/06/2019

Tesla Q4 earnings call - One More Thing. From Lucian Miers

02/05/2019

Reach4Entertainment - 2018 significantly ahead & also expects 2019 ahead; Buy

02/04/2019

Is Rank really so dank? Chris Bailey reviews

02/01/2019

Dominos Pizza, Crest Nicholson, Royal Mail & PZ Cussons - any buys amongst them?

01/31/2019

IQE - sell the rally says Lucian Miers

01/30/2019

Is Tesco talking sense? Chris Bailey reviews

01/29/2019

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - rapid progress to positive cash flow?

01/28/2019

Obtala - Long Term Incentive Plan announcement... but no need for shareholder anger here

01/25/2019

I told you Metro Bank was dodgy...and not to underestimate Chinese chavs re. Burberry

01/24/2019

KAZ Minerals has the potential to become a copper mining giant in the future considers Gary Newman

01/23/2019

Character Group - reassuring AGM trading update, a speculative buy?

01/22/2019

Update on Flybe - Short Term Lifeline for the Retail Punter from Lucian Miers

01/21/2019

Obtala - quarterly update, now supercharging development. From HotStockRockets

01/18/2019

Headlam - time to buy? Chris Bailey considers...

01/17/2019

Telit - auto sale on track, but trading statement is a load of cobblers. Sell says Tom Winnifrith

01/16/2019

Shoe Zone - a value proposition suited to the challenging consumer environment?

01/15/2019

Flybe put out of its misery for 1p. Next up for near wipeout is Interserve says Lucian Miers

01/14/2019

Sosander - Q3 trading statement update from Nigel Somerville

01/11/2019

Union Jack Oil - Biscathorpe-2 well spud, let the excitement commence…

01/10/2019

Christmas trading update time - Morrisons, Greene King or Joules a buy?

01/09/2019

Bowleven - time for a small drop of Ouzo as 15p special dividend is announced says Nigel Somerville

01/08/2019

KEFI Minerals - shares slightly lower on Tulu Kapi project update, BUT...

01/07/2019

Next - no profits growth... but that is fine argues Chris Bailey

01/04/2019

Five slam-dunk shares to sell for 2019 by Nigel Somerville

01/03/2019

A share tip of the year for 2019 from Tom Winnifrith

01/02/2019

Rockhopper Exploration - a long term buy at the current price?

01/01/2019

Highland Gold is well worth considering says Gary Newman

12/31/2018

A share tip of the year for 2019 from Gary Newman of ShareProphets

12/28/2018

Investment is all about passion...not passion investments says Chris Bailey

12/27/2018

Professor Malcolm Stacey with his World Famous Christmas Lecture...

12/24/2018

What looks interesting in the FTSE 100? Chris Bailey reviews...

12/21/2018

Optibiotix - board strengthened, still a buy?

12/20/2018

Boohoo vs ASOS - could one unravel very soon indeed?

12/19/2018

Retail & SSE plc omnishambles, but some value in the sectors? Chris Bailey reviews...

12/18/2018

Lessons from AA plc. Lucian Miers writes...

12/17/2018

PZ Cussons - time for a research trip to Nigeria? Chris Bailey writes...

12/14/2018

Wood Group, Superdry, Dixons Carphone & DP Poland - any buys from a busy RNS day?

12/13/2018

KEFI Minerals - positive regulatory consent news in the coming weeks?

12/12/2018

Thoughts on Thomas Cook - stay away, Short Flybe instead says Lucian Miers

12/11/2018

Petropavlovsk - POX Hub processing milestone, Buy

12/10/2018

Yourgene - Premaitha as was - interim numbers not impressive, but still a strong buy?

12/07/2018

Numis statement shows why the finnCap IPO is such a stinker says Tom Winnifrith

12/06/2018

Synectics - remains a recovery buy say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore

12/04/2018

Blue Prism Group - argues it is pleased in trading update, but shares still a sell?

11/29/2018

Greencore & Ibstock - a tale of two disposals from Chris Bailey

11/28/2018

Premier Oil could see a swift rise when oil bounces considers Gary Newman

11/27/2018

Optibiotix - Greek deal news via Adam Reynolds keyboard, but better to come. Buy.

11/26/2018

Updated thoughts on Tesla - stay short says Lucian Miers

11/23/2018

Three larger cap buy ideas from Chris Bailey

11/22/2018

AO World - interims argue remains confident, but can high growth rating really be justified?

11/21/2018

Dividend stocks & what to make of the Brexit omnishambles from Nigel Somerville

11/20/2018

Sirius Minerals - patience will pay longer term argues Gary Newman

11/19/2018

Falanx - shares to still more than double?

11/16/2018

Victoria - update on bond fiasco, remains a sell says Lucian Miers

11/14/2018

Glencore looks too cheap considers Gary Newman

11/13/2018

Bowleven - raising my stance back to buy says Nigel Somerville

11/12/2018

First Derivatives - it is smoke & mirrors, keep selling says Lucian Miers

11/09/2018

Buy ITV and Marks & Spencer?

11/08/2018

Imperial Brands - fade the moral outrage & buy says Chris Bailey

11/07/2018

Bushveld Minerals - banking some profit prudent, but still more to come?

11/06/2018

Keep buying any weakness in Centamin as the company is now back on track says Gary Newman

11/05/2018

Horizonte Minerals - I remain confident following feasibility study says Gary Newman

11/02/2018

Obtala - sharpens focus & a fundraising, still a buy says HotStockRockets

11/01/2018

Restaurant Group - what to make of Wagamama acquisition? Chris Bailey reviews

10/31/2018

Cairn Energy will see rapid production growth in the coming years - Buy says Gary Newman

10/30/2018

Barryroe could still come good for Lansdowne Oil - speculative buy says Gary Newman

10/29/2018

WPP advertises a shocker - where now?

10/26/2018

Barclays or Metro Bank - who to fancy in a financials cage fight?

10/25/2018

Whitbread - a core FTSE-100 holding? Chris Bailey reviews

10/24/2018

Anglo Asian Mining - a golden buy?

10/23/2018

Alba Mineral Resources - updates from Wales and Horse Hill, excitement soon to be sparked?

10/22/2018

Shoe Zone - shares jump on ‘ahead of expectations’ update, but still an income buy

10/19/2018

SOCO International - a lot to like at this share price level, buy says Gary Newman

10/18/2018

Ariana Resources - gold production & exploration positives. Nigel Somerville writes

10/17/2018

Shenanigans at First Derivatives Do Not Look Good. Sell says Lucian Miers

10/16/2018

Five large caps for capital growth from Chris Bailey

10/15/2018

Dunelm - am I at danger of buying some frilly curtains? (and more). Chris Bailey writes

10/12/2018

Synectics - a buy for recovery say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore

10/11/2018

Versarien remains a sell for the brave (& First Derivatives). Lucian Miers writes

10/10/2018

Rose Petroleum - a buy says HotStockRockets

10/09/2018

Union Jack Oil - adding to material potential catalysts. Buy says HotStockRockets

10/08/2018

Tlou Energy - a speculative buy considers Gary Newman

10/05/2018

Tesco - shares now too cheap? Chris Bailey reviews

10/04/2018

easyJet & Royal Mail - where now after share price shockers? Chris Bailey reviews

10/03/2018

Goldplat - post full-year results, a buy suggests HotStockRockets

10/02/2018

Columbus Energy Resources - after interims remains a buy says HotStockRockets

10/01/2018

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - updates on projects, remains a buy says HotStockRockets

09/28/2018

Next & Imperial Brands - following news, updated views from Chris Bailey

09/27/2018

Why I would short Time Out Group says Gary Newman

09/26/2018

Randgold merger - what to do? Chris Bailey reviews

09/25/2018

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