The year to date has not provided a very promising backdrop for bears. I - like many others - am intensely irritated by Donald Trump’s obsession with the level of the US market and his clearly seeing it as a barometer for his own genius. When he claimed late last year that the fourth quarter sell off was a blip and a buying opportunity I waited with grim satisfaction for the rude awakening that was sure to follow.
I am still waiting and probably more obsessed by the level of the market than the president himself. For instance, I can tell you that although last week felt like the brakes had finally been applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average juggernaut, containing, as it did, the first 3 day sequence of down days of the year, it was still an up week (plus 43 points), the seventh in succession since the nadir of Christmas eve, a stonking 15% rally which has taken it to less than 5% away from its September all-time high. I guess it is good training to be forced to operate in such conditions as a bear and certainly it pays to be continuously testing short theses on names which are not performing as hoped as one rarely does this when the moves are in one’s favour.
It requires patience and it is good when that is rewarded in a rising market. Recent weakness in Tesla (NASDAQ - TSLA) is encouraging and given the cliff over which US sales of the model 3 seem to have fallen and the receding likelihood that it will be able to pay off its $900 million convertible debt with shares in three week’s time, it seems to me more and more likely that it is a question of when and not if this great con trick unravels.
IQE (IQE) has also bucked the trend recently as maybe the market is waking up to its valuation being ridiculous and that sooner or later it will be found out. The shares still have a long way to fall but at least it looks like the process has begun.
Filed under: Tesla, IQE, UK Oil & Gas, David Lenigas, Paul Scott, Woodford, WYG, Bluebird Merchant Ventures
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