Gold again my call for 2021 & my stock selections writes Nigel Somerville...

SHOCKER: Trainline just how much contempt does it have for its customers and how much profit does it make from very dodgy partners? Read from Tom Winnifrith HERE

There are, once again, bubbles everywhere. US markets are at all-time highs and Japan is at a thirty-year high, according to David Scott. Government bonds (as opposed to their yields) aren’t far off all-time highs and - importantly - the returns are minimal if not negative. Traditionally, that would be a warning sign that all is not well – normally when one is high the other is low. But these are no normal times. The cause is all that money-printing.

Read HERE: IDE Group – emphasises “Significant Multi-Year Contract Win”, but does it justify a +287% share price response?...

In the FTSE-100, apparently safe plays are held to ransom by lockdown after lockdown and this wretched government’s inability to stick to a decision. The High St is closed and seems set for almost permanent closure – the winner being Amazon, which (in case nobody has noticed) is a US company so the Treasury won’t benefit at all; pubs and restaurants are closed and vast swathes of them will disappear once the furlough scheme is finally wound in. I have said it before and I’ll say it again: this is not a backdrop conducive for growing a business. Indeed, it is a recipe for further carnage. Right now that devastation is being kept from view by Rishi Sunak’s furlough scheme, but the unemployment will come – and it will be terrible. Then there are the small matters of currency debasement, government debt, corporate debt and inflation. It seems for now - like the cash running out amongst AIM-tiddlers - that Mr Market has forgotten about that.

Great Western Mining – the case of the dog that barked in the night says Tom Winnifrith HERE

We currently don’t see inflation because it doesn’t get included in official (twisted) figures like CPI inflation, but it is there. Soon it will feed through, and when it does I fancy the stock market will take a very cold shower as reality bites. So call me a bore, but as per last year, my view is that anything to do with Gold will go up. We are through the correction which set in at the beginning of August with the yellow stuff at an all-time high of $2063 per oz, and the market put in a low point of $1762. But the price has recovered somewhat, putting in an all-time year-end high of $1898. ShareProphets’ favourite technical analyst Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com reckons the correction is over and precious metals prices will grind higher. There is big resistance overhead for Gold at $1900-1925 or so and it may take a while to clear that. And of course there is now the all-time high at $2063. But his view is that those hurdles will be overcome and the Gold price could move to the mid-to upper $2000s – even $3000 – over the coming year or 18 months. Roy-Byrne is annoyingly right so much of the time and I hope he is right about that. But even a more modest target of, say, $2250 would transform Gold stocks. But there is another part to this: many people hold bonds to counterbalance equity risk. But bonds are largely offering negative yields whilst equities are at all-time highs. My thinking is that some will move out of bonds and into Gold because of the improvement to the yield prospects – after all, zero is better than a minus! I’m not suggesting a complete exit from shares in general, but it seems to me that Gold remains a sure-fire bet for the foreseeable future.

Performance update: start of 2020 top shorted London-listed shares HERE

My biggest gold-holding is still Ariana Resources (AAU). Shareholders passed the corporate deal with Ozaltin with a 100% majority and next stop is completion, followed by the long-awaited special dividend of perhaps 0.7p. The Kiziltepe plant is being expanded, Tavsan is waiting to move into construction and the Salinbas project should take more shape over the next 12 months. But Ariana will have boat-loads of cash and I fancy CEO Kerim Sener has something up his sleeve for some of that. At 5.15p and up to 5.5p I still rate the stock a buy, with an initial target of 7.5p. My second largest holding is Golden Prospect (GPM). The stock is now 53.5p against last stated NAV of 66.18p – a discount of a very tasty 19.2%. That, surely, is a buy too – and if gold moves sharply upwards I suggest that Golden Prospect will outperform heavily, with the bonus that the discount to NAV will close which is why it was my first tip of the year for 2021. I still have my holding in Centamin (CEY), which I still see as a buy at 123.7p. It promises a final payout of 3 US cents to add to the interim 6 cents, and a minimum of the same next year which means if offers a yield of 5.4%. But production improvements, cost savings and rising gold should see that yield move upwards and I still reckon we will see £2 per share this year. I also continue to hold the Junior Gold unit trust, GDX and GDXJ ETFs and Standard-listed Panther Metals (PALM) which is a speculation, but the upside could be spectacular. As previously mentioned, I sold my holding in BlackRock Gold and General unit trust. I still rate the fund very highly and expect to move back into it in due course, but right now I want to position myself to make the most of another bull-run in the yellow metal and in my view that means smaller stocks, explorers and those heading into production. So I expect Golden Prospect and Junior Gold to do extremely well, and to heavily outperform the BlackRock fund in the shorter term. But if I am right, it will then be time to shift back into the BlackRock fund as I look to lock in profits from more volatile plays. Let’s see how that plays out.

Things that became racist in 2021 – No 1 Dad’s Army. From TomWinnifrith.com HERE

Filed under: gold, Trainline, IDE Group, Great Western Mining, shorted shares, TomWinnifrith.com

Johnson Matthey - still excited about prospects writes Chris Bailey...

08/04/2021

Rio Tinto - the story remains so much more than just cultural heritage says Chris Bailey

08/03/2021

Metals Exploration - Q2 challenges but a better outlook considers HotStockRockets

08/02/2021

Castillo Copper - further copper intersections & visible mineralisation, Buy

07/30/2021

British American Tobacco shares continue to offer attractive total return hopes says Chris Bailey

07/29/2021

Reckitt - recent share price decline too severe? Chris Bailey reviews...

07/28/2021

Centamin - remains a buy following Q2 report says Nigel Somerville

07/27/2021

Union Jack Oil - West Newton update, clear upcoming catalysts...

07/26/2021

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - operational update shows progress is being made, Buy...

07/23/2021

Saga offers interesting exposure to the travel industry bouncing back considers Gary Newman

07/22/2021

easyJet - ten quid or more share price again by the end of the year? Chris Bailey writes...

07/21/2021

Headlam Group - a recovery buy?...

07/20/2021

Burberry - chav challenges? Chris Bailey reviews...

07/19/2021

Orcadian Energy - a newly-listed AIM oiler Buy suggests Peter Brailey...

07/16/2021

Kosmos Energy - production & share price upside potential says Gary Newman...

07/15/2021

Cairn Energy - a lot to like at this price? Gary Newman reviews...

07/14/2021

DS Smith - further recovery & structural growth potential following full-year results?...

07/13/2021

GlaxoSmithKline - a recovery buy...

07/12/2021

Wm Morrison - recommended offer, but is there still more to come?

07/09/2021

Pick and choose your stocks - and if you need to houses - carefully says Chris Bailey...

07/08/2021

After Wm Morrison, J Sainsbury next? Chris Bailey writes...

07/07/2021

I3 Energy has turned things around - plenty of further potential considers Gary Newman...

07/06/2021

AEX Gold - Nalunaq and exploration update, Buy...

07/05/2021

Impellam Group - a recovery buy suggest Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore...

07/02/2021

MyHealthChecked - acquisition, building a business of sustainable scale?...

07/01/2021

Burberry CEO deciding to leave a problem? Chris Bailey reviews...

06/30/2021

GlaxoSmithKline - a buy despite the unexcitable CEO? Chris Bailey writes...

06/29/2021

Kefi Gold & Copper - Ethiopia election operational update, Buy...

06/28/2021

Kier - open offer result following subsidiary sale, recovery buy?...

06/25/2021

Ariana Resources - more very positive drilling results. Buy says Nigel Somerville...

06/24/2021

DS Smith - strange name but a great company says Chris Bailey...

06/23/2021

Horizonte Minerals - short-term delay largely irrelevant. Buy says Gary Newman...

06/22/2021

Empresaria - a summer of positive macro-economic tailwinds ahead? From HotStockRockets...

06/21/2021

Pharos Energy - oil discovery and further potential catalysts says HotStockRockets...

06/18/2021

B.P. Marsh & Partners - full-year results, recovery opportunities...

06/17/2021

Serica Energy - plenty to make me think that it will continue to do very well says Gary Newman

06/16/2021

EnQuest - new debt facility, recovery buy says HotStockRockets

06/15/2021

Kefi Gold & Copper - still a risk-reward buy following executive bonus plan victory for investors...

06/14/2021

Asiamet Resources - progressing several key workstreams. Buy says HotStockRockets...

06/11/2021

British American Tobacco - positive pre-close update. Remains a Buy says Chris Bailey...

06/10/2021

Reckitt to sell a business in China but still loves the emerging markets. Chris Bailey writes...

06/09/2021

Bushveld Minerals - vanadium about to enter an up-cycle? Gary Newman writes...

06/08/2021

Anglo Asian Mining - how pleasing and exciting the results announcement?...

06/07/2021

SkinBioTherapeutics - positive study results, still multi-bagger potential?...

06/04/2021

With a new team in place Afentra is a buy says Gary Newman

06/03/2021

Still excited about prospects for Johnson Matthey says Chris Bailey...

06/02/2021

Central Asia Metals - a buy? A review by HotStockRockets...

06/01/2021

Predator Oil & Gas - Morocco and Trinidad updates, more to come from this great share tip?...

05/28/2021

Playtech - good sale & a sensible update. Still undervalued suggests Chris Bailey...

05/27/2021

Smiths Group - CEO change, will the next change be to split the business?

05/26/2021

Biffa loves more waste and more recycling says Chris Bailey...

05/25/2021

Red Rock Resources - Elephant Oil and Juno Minerals investee updates, remains a Strong Buy...

05/24/2021

Power Metal Resources - news flow helps shares, more to come. From HotStockRockets...

05/21/2021

DCC - a compelling medium-term buy suggests Chris Bailey...

05/20/2021

Ariana Resources - more drilling results bode well for Kiziltepe, Buy says Nigel Somerville...

05/19/2021

Sage Group is still a friend of mine says Chris Bailey...

05/18/2021

Touchstone Exploration - Q1 results, an upcoming potential catalysts buy says HotStockRockets

05/17/2021

Predator Oil & Gas - as MOU-1 drilling excitement builds an update from HotStockRockets

05/14/2021

Bacanora Lithium - a buy at a big discount to the possible cash offer price? Gary Newman writes...

05/13/2021

Morrisons is still rudely unloved. A Buy says Chris Bailey...

05/12/2021

Panther Metals - Oz update. Targeting 25p says Nigel Somerville...

05/11/2021

Jadestone Energy - a pleased to announce Malaysia acquisition. We can understand why...

05/10/2021

J Sainsbury - full year results, still income value?...

05/07/2021

Sell in May? Some stocks Yes, gold No, argues Nigel Somerville...

05/06/2021

Centamin - a gold buy whilst its shares are cheap says Gary Newman

05/05/2021

Chaarat Gold - Q1 operational update, share price catalysts imminent says HotStockRockets

05/04/2021

Shanta Gold - Q1 production & operational update. Buy says HotStockRockets...

04/30/2021

Do I panic as Whitbread shares fall? Chris Bailey writes...

04/29/2021

Gold and my favourite gold stocks update from Nigel Somerville...

04/28/2021

How are Ibstock and Taylor Wimpey feeling about their housing market exposure? Chris Bailey writes..

04/27/2021

Union Jack Oil - well testing potential share price catalysts ahoy. Buy suggests HotStockRockets...

04/26/2021

Metals Exploration - Q1 update, clear risks but also clear opportunity...

04/23/2021

I remain positive on Imperial Brands shares following US reports writes Chris Bailey...

04/21/2021

Johnson Matthey shares are worth buying considers Chris Bailey...

04/20/2021

Ferrexpo - still upside potential from this cracking share tip?...

04/19/2021

BP - trading & net debt position ahead of expectations, Income Buy...

04/16/2021

Chaarat Gold - 2020 results, still a buy from HotStockRockets?...

04/15/2021

Golden Prospect Precious Metals - FY20 numbers, shares to double? Nigel Somerville reviews...

04/14/2021

Horizonte Minerals - 2020 results, transformational year ahead...

04/13/2021

SkinBioTherapeutics - new research programme. We are already massively ahead but more to come?...

04/12/2021

Centamin - a recovery buy suggest Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore...

04/09/2021

Carnival keeps on hoping...and so do I says Chris Bailey...

04/08/2021

Loving the outlook for commodities & Central Asia Metals writes Chris Bailey...

04/07/2021

Predator Oil and Gas - a review from HotStockRockets...

04/06/2021

I do not use Carnival or Imperial Brands...but am still happy to own both shares writes Chris Bailey

04/01/2021

Serica Energy - with plenty of news flow to come, Buy says Gary Newman...

03/31/2021

Are the Chinese chavs of Burberry being told to change their view? Chris Bailey writes...

03/30/2021

Horizonte Minerals - an upcoming catalysts Buy...

03/29/2021

Goldplat - interims, still a value buy?...

03/26/2021

Centamin - full year results. A recovery buy argues Nigel Somerville...

03/25/2021

AEX Gold - development plan and exploration progress, still a buy...

03/24/2021

Caerus Mineral Resources has just listed and is possibly worth a flutter says Gary Newman...

03/23/2021

Fox Marble - legal claim update, Buy to possibly double says Tom Winnifrith for HotStockRockets...

03/22/2021

EnQuest - an oil recovery buy?

03/19/2021

Is the recent share price rise of 88 Energy justified? Gary Newman reviews...

03/18/2021

Ariana Resources - a Buy on its production guidance news says Nigel Somerville...

03/17/2021

Wm Morrison - full-year results, still an income buy?...

03/15/2021

Biffa - a recovery buy?...

03/12/2021

Do not worry about the losses at Ibstock says Chris Bailey...

03/11/2021

Prudential - scope to perform more says Chris Bailey

03/10/2021

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