Gold and gold stocks - what is ahead? Nigel Somerville reviews...

BREAKING: Here is another multi million dollar lawsuit Argo Blockchain neglected to tell you about!

Having traded between around $1800 and $1830 for the past month, on Friday gold finally gave way and dropped to well below $1800. Gold Stocks duly followed. So what is ahead? Further declines, a jolly good bounce or just flat-lining?

Verditek – the Green ponzi bond flops! Yet another failure on Gollum's CV says Tom Winnifrith, The Sheriff of AIM, HERE

In the general scheme of things, given that Gold has clung on to $1800 for a while now and every time a spot of market enthusiasm pushed it up to $1830 gravity seems to have pulled it back down again, it seems to me that there is a decent chance of the reverse happening and $1800 will be recovered in double quick time. On the other hand, the 10-year US Treasury yield had a pretty big upswing to close on Friday at 1.3% having put in a low on Wednesday at just 1.14%. Higher yields imply higher interest rates, which makes those bonds relatively more attractive than gold as gold offers no yield. It is therefore perhaps no coincidence that gold had a poor end to the week. Will Treasury market yields continue higher? I’m not so sure. For a start, central banks are caught between a rock and a hard place: the inflation genie is out of the bottle (laughably, we are now being told that “transitory” inflation could last 3 years) which needs an interest rate reaction, but at the same time the apparently burgeoning economy looks to be heading for a stall: in the US last week’s employment report saw 330,000 jobs added, which sounds good until you see that expectations were for 700,000.

Video HERE: Argo CEO/Chairman Peter Wall fails to deal with Boatman report - 3 out of 10 for artistic interpretaton, nil for technical merit

The 330,000 jobs was the weakest figure since February. If the labour market is cooling off, that doesn’t portend well for the V-shaped recovery and (besides the fact that Western economies can’t afford higher rates) I’ll bet the central bankers will latch on to that as an excuse to leave interest rates at rock bottom for even longer. But inflation is a continuing problem: last week saw US data for the July ISM Services Index showing prices rising at the fastest pace since 2005, according to Gold mega-bull Peter Schiff. But the joke was that apparently hawkish comments from the Fed’s Richard Clarida, that interest rates may have to go up - not this year, nor in 2022, but 2023 - caused a brief rally in Gold and Silver to reverse. One could gently suggest what is perhaps obvious: the inflation genie is out but if this recovery stalls we are looking at stagflation and central banks are painted into a corner: they can’t raise rates to combat inflation, they can’t drop them to stimulate economic recovery. In such circumstances, I suggest, gold is the place to be. But for now it seems that gold is some sort of economic pariah. Nobody wants it, and nobody wants gold producers even more! In the short term there is no guarantee that everybody will not hate gold even more in the weeks to come, I suggest that this is a building signal that gold is the place to be, given the macro economic situation. They say the time to buy is when there is blood on the streets and gold stock prices suggest we are about there already in this small corner of the world. What might turn the tables?

Read HERE: Fusion Antibodies – results argue “significant progress”, so why more than 7% share price decline?...

Our favourite technical analyst, Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDaiyGold.com, reckons what the gold market needs is a general stock market correction – and he seems to think that one is inevitable in the coming months. Of course, corrections are a natural thing so he is right that there will be one, the question is when, not if. But with markets selling results and previously loved stay-at-home stocks struggling, I fancy that conditions favouring a correction are growing. It seems that the market is not now just buying growth at any price and I am increasingly convinced that a long-overdue correction is just around the corner, perhaps in the early autumn. This will give gold-bugs the fillip needed to push back towards $2000 by year-end as fear drives some cash out of general equities into safe-haven assets. Until a correction gets under way, my view is that gold ain’t going very far. It may dip a little, it may bounce a little but I suspect that watching the chart will be the equivalent of watching paint dry: we just have to wait. Meanwhile, I have waited long enough for that next can of beans to warm up by the fire - time for a snack!

Photo Article from the Greek Hovel for Bryan's Mrs - yes there are snake repellent canisters. From TomWinnifrith.com HERE

Filed under: gold, Argo Blockchain, Verditek, Peter Wall, Fusion Antibodies, TomWinnifrith.com

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