Next - if you want an annuity large cap core non-food retailer...

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: Wrestling with my conscience on Yourgene, Down Syndrome and abortion. Listen HERE

I read recently that apparently 90% of people polled in one survey thought that the whole Brexit shenanigans are a national embarrassment. I think I am with the crowd on this one...which makes me happy to see a regulatory news statement from my old pals at Next (NXT), which wonderfully observes on the whole future EU relationship debacle: 'we can see no evidence that this uncertainty is affecting consumer behaviour in our sector'. Good news...but then Next, unlike so many of its other sector peers, is a quality operator as I have attested before – and can be seen in its latest numbers...

Nigel Somerville writes: And this week’s biggest disaster for Neil Woodford is…

These are in line with the hopes guided to the market in January. Of course, that does not mean that everything is stellar with EPS growth of 4.5% and a dividend increase of an almost equivalent proportion - but they are moving forward. Cash generation remained strong and allowed a cool £541 million to be returned to shareholders via the aforementioned dividend and a continuing share buyback. That's equivalent to over 7% of the current market cap, which is a decent shareholder remuneration yield in anyone's book. Of course there are structural evolutions as best evidenced by the observation that '(F)ull price sales were up +3.1%. Online full price sales increased by +14.8% and Retail full price sales declined by -7.3%'.

Maistro – “pleased to report on the significant progress that has been made in 2018”… so why a further share price fall? Reviewed HERE

Even Next in its physical shops cannot buck the strong prevailing online trend...but then it did effectively call the switch a generation ago via initially its massively successful mail order Directory. Or as the company put it itself 'the business has moved from stores to internet, from UK only to international, from mono-brand to multi-brand aggregator'. What you need to know as an investor is that online profits are already bigger than those at the stores and the gap is only going to get bigger. As for the next twelve months, akin to the thoughts noted at the link above, growth is not going to be epic but it should be positive. Full price sales are expected to rise 1.7% year-on-year, taking group profit before tax to £715 million. This actually will lead to a 1.1% fall in this metric but - aided by the ongoing share buyback - earnings per share growth is estimated to be 3.6%. In short (and reiterated by the dividend hike), Next overall remains a lower (but positive) growth annuity style business with the cash generation/dividend being the major attraction.

Read Malcolm Stacey HERE: My Ex-Lodger Thinks ITV's Share Price is Underrated - And He Should Know

One of the more interesting statistics in the full year numbers is the observation that 'Last year we negotiated a rent reduction of -29% on the leases that we renewed'. That hardly screams well for the property names, does it? I also liked the geek style nature of the fifteen year corporate stress test the company discussed in its results, trying to anticipate what a progressively bigger shift to online would look like. Feel free to delve into the statement for the full details but suffice to say there is a profitable/cash generative Next business that still emerges. Clearly reality over the next ten or fifteen years is likely to be different from any model derived today but the conclusion I think is broadly valid. In short, if you want an annuity large cap core non-food retailer...you do not need to say 'next', just invest in Next. As I am not buying annuities yet, my more trading view would be akin to last time 'deserves to be back at 50 quid plus. Don't hesitate in the lower 40s'. With the share trading just over the 50 quid level as I write, I remain on the sidelines but watching closely for an opportunity...whilst wearing my newish Next jumper. Yes, even I can find something to wear there.

Smiths Group thumbs up but Amigo remains no friend of mine. Read more from Chris Bailey HERE

Filed under: Next, Bearcast, Neil Woodford, Maistro, ITV, Malcolm Stacey, Smiths Group, Amigo

Atalaya Mining remains a buy after recent updates says Gary Newman

04/18/2019

A couple of ShareProphets share tips of the year updates

04/17/2019

Lessons from Plus500 and time to sell more Purplebricks. From Lucian Miers...

04/16/2019

Polymetal - all that glistens can be gold says Chris Bailey

04/15/2019

Central Asia Metals produces another good set of results and remains a buy says Gary Newman

04/12/2019

Barclays - a low sentiment today to a mid-range sentiment tomorrow play suggests Chris Bailey

04/11/2019

Sosandar - are the shares expensive or cheap after trading update? Nigel Somerville reviews...

04/10/2019

Quilter - a buy if you are a bull on the UK market says Chris Bailey

04/09/2019

Coro Energy - enough potential reward from here for a speculative investment considers Gary Newman

04/08/2019

Sosandar slides again back towards IPO price - time to buy back in? Tom Winnifrith reviews...

04/05/2019

Tern - placing at just 8.5p and an excuse that just does not wash says Nigel Somerville

04/04/2019

Versarien and its shocking new American Appointment. A sell from Lucian Miers

04/03/2019

easyJet slides again but time to pull back on the share purchasing throttle?

04/02/2019

A German Teutonic train ratio tells you that FirstGroup remains cheap suggests Chris Bailey

04/01/2019

Petra Diamonds could add some sparkle to your portfolio suggests Gary Newman

03/29/2019

Accesso - still a sell suggests Steve Moore

03/28/2019

Union Jack Oil - funding at a not great price... but look at the potential of the projects it is for

03/27/2019

If Royal Dutch Shell is going to be a utility giant it has got to buy big says Chris Bailey

03/26/2019

IQE - a good opportunity for bears with patience says Lucian Miers

03/25/2019

Next - if you want an annuity large cap core non-food retailer...

03/22/2019

Argo Blockchain - now a buy?

03/21/2019

Wood Group - chill out despite fall on results?

03/20/2019

Prudential - snaffling a few shares a suitable compromise? Chris Bailey writes...

03/19/2019

Anglo Asian Mining - long term buy and hold says Gary Newman

03/18/2019

Dignity: still worrying about competition in death warns Chris Bailey

03/15/2019

Concepta - signs up with Boots: Game ON. From HotStockRockets

03/14/2019

Further short term dips in Avesoro Resources will offer a good buying opportunity says Gary Newman

03/13/2019

Telit Communications - patience will reward those who are short at these levels says Lucian Miers

03/12/2019

Is it worth taking a gamble on the Guyana drill of Eco Atlantic? Gary Newman reviews...

03/11/2019

SDX Energy should perform well in 2019 and beyond says Gary Newman

03/08/2019

Synectics - results subdued, but confident of good progress from here

03/07/2019

A Turbulent Week at Tesla - sell before it is too late says Lucian Miers

03/06/2019

Abcam - review of a clever, innovative (but also fat cat pay) company by Chris Bailey

03/05/2019

Dividend Munchers Update by Nigel Somerville

03/04/2019

Centamin - the market has vastly over-reacted argues Gary Newman

03/01/2019

RNS potpourri - M&S and Ocado, GVC, ITV, Taylor Wimpey...and badboy Metro Bank from Chris Bailey

02/28/2019

Tesla - shorters patience will be rewarded in 2019 says Lucian Miers

02/27/2019

Reach4Entertainment - I am going to be honest ref. placing and acquisition. From Tom Winnifrith

02/25/2019

Purplebricks - catastrophic warning: target price 0p says Tom Winnifrith

02/22/2019

Lloyds - you cannot eat relative performance... but still bet on the black horse says Chris Bailey

02/21/2019

Yourgene - debt cleared; this is an amazing deal (plus comment on Hardman) from Tom Winnifrith

02/20/2019

Whitbread has a plan and Restaurant Group patently does not says Chris Bailey

02/15/2019

Thoughts on The US Market Juggernaut - and Tesla & IQE - from Lucian Miers

02/14/2019

Ariana Resources - Nigel Somerville updates on buy tip for 2019

02/13/2019

Is the Petrofac share price collapse a good buying or trading opportunity? Gary Newman reviews...

02/12/2019

Red Rock Resources – updates on Congo progress, Buy to almost double says Tom Winnifrith

02/11/2019

Thomas Cook - not buying its holidays but still liking its shares says Chris Bailey

02/08/2019

Union Jack Oil - various potential share price catalysts by HotStockRockets

02/07/2019

Centrica - good total return value? Chris Bailey reviews

02/06/2019

Tesla Q4 earnings call - One More Thing. From Lucian Miers

02/05/2019

Reach4Entertainment - 2018 significantly ahead & also expects 2019 ahead; Buy

02/04/2019

Is Rank really so dank? Chris Bailey reviews

02/01/2019

Dominos Pizza, Crest Nicholson, Royal Mail & PZ Cussons - any buys amongst them?

01/31/2019

IQE - sell the rally says Lucian Miers

01/30/2019

Is Tesco talking sense? Chris Bailey reviews

01/29/2019

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - rapid progress to positive cash flow?

01/28/2019

Obtala - Long Term Incentive Plan announcement... but no need for shareholder anger here

01/25/2019

I told you Metro Bank was dodgy...and not to underestimate Chinese chavs re. Burberry

01/24/2019

KAZ Minerals has the potential to become a copper mining giant in the future considers Gary Newman

01/23/2019

Character Group - reassuring AGM trading update, a speculative buy?

01/22/2019

Update on Flybe - Short Term Lifeline for the Retail Punter from Lucian Miers

01/21/2019

Obtala - quarterly update, now supercharging development. From HotStockRockets

01/18/2019

Headlam - time to buy? Chris Bailey considers...

01/17/2019

Telit - auto sale on track, but trading statement is a load of cobblers. Sell says Tom Winnifrith

01/16/2019

Shoe Zone - a value proposition suited to the challenging consumer environment?

01/15/2019

Flybe put out of its misery for 1p. Next up for near wipeout is Interserve says Lucian Miers

01/14/2019

Sosander - Q3 trading statement update from Nigel Somerville

01/11/2019

Union Jack Oil - Biscathorpe-2 well spud, let the excitement commence…

01/10/2019

Christmas trading update time - Morrisons, Greene King or Joules a buy?

01/09/2019

Bowleven - time for a small drop of Ouzo as 15p special dividend is announced says Nigel Somerville

01/08/2019

KEFI Minerals - shares slightly lower on Tulu Kapi project update, BUT...

01/07/2019

Next - no profits growth... but that is fine argues Chris Bailey

01/04/2019

Five slam-dunk shares to sell for 2019 by Nigel Somerville

01/03/2019

A share tip of the year for 2019 from Tom Winnifrith

01/02/2019

Rockhopper Exploration - a long term buy at the current price?

01/01/2019

Highland Gold is well worth considering says Gary Newman

12/31/2018

A share tip of the year for 2019 from Gary Newman of ShareProphets

12/28/2018

Investment is all about passion...not passion investments says Chris Bailey

12/27/2018

Professor Malcolm Stacey with his World Famous Christmas Lecture...

12/24/2018

What looks interesting in the FTSE 100? Chris Bailey reviews...

12/21/2018

Optibiotix - board strengthened, still a buy?

12/20/2018

Boohoo vs ASOS - could one unravel very soon indeed?

12/19/2018

Retail & SSE plc omnishambles, but some value in the sectors? Chris Bailey reviews...

12/18/2018

Lessons from AA plc. Lucian Miers writes...

12/17/2018

PZ Cussons - time for a research trip to Nigeria? Chris Bailey writes...

12/14/2018

Wood Group, Superdry, Dixons Carphone & DP Poland - any buys from a busy RNS day?

12/13/2018

KEFI Minerals - positive regulatory consent news in the coming weeks?

12/12/2018

Thoughts on Thomas Cook - stay away, Short Flybe instead says Lucian Miers

12/11/2018

Petropavlovsk - POX Hub processing milestone, Buy

12/10/2018

Yourgene - Premaitha as was - interim numbers not impressive, but still a strong buy?

12/07/2018

Numis statement shows why the finnCap IPO is such a stinker says Tom Winnifrith

12/06/2018

Synectics - remains a recovery buy say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore

12/04/2018

Blue Prism Group - argues it is pleased in trading update, but shares still a sell?

11/29/2018

Greencore & Ibstock - a tale of two disposals from Chris Bailey

11/28/2018

Premier Oil could see a swift rise when oil bounces considers Gary Newman

11/27/2018

Optibiotix - Greek deal news via Adam Reynolds keyboard, but better to come. Buy.

11/26/2018

Updated thoughts on Tesla - stay short says Lucian Miers

11/23/2018

Three larger cap buy ideas from Chris Bailey

11/22/2018

AO World - interims argue remains confident, but can high growth rating really be justified?

11/21/2018

Dividend stocks & what to make of the Brexit omnishambles from Nigel Somerville

11/20/2018

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