Sell in May? Some stocks Yes, gold No, argues Nigel Somerville...

BREAKING: Bidstack – Confirmation of Stifel forecast slash & breach of AIM Rules 10 & 11. Read from Tom Winnifrith, The Sheriff of AIM, HERE

Gold settled last week at almost exactly $1770 per ounce – down a notch from the $1777 it closed at the previous week as the effect of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision (unchanged, completely predictable) wore off. And having wobbled as low as $1765 towards the end of the week, was it time to sell in May and go away? Well, gold has since headed northwards, above $1790 and in line with its highest point in 9 weeks. Suddenly, it seems that everyone is talking about inflation.

Read HERE: Trevor “pump and dump” Brown does it again – has this man no shame at all?

Of course, stocks are also seen as an inflation hedge (so long as they have pricing power) but Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com – ShareProphets’ favourite technical analyst (mainly because he’s not just a technical analyst) – reckons gold is headed for $1825-1850, but after that it could just loll around or turn south once again in the short term (but be in no doubt, longer term he is madder than me). The “noise” (as Roy-Byrne calls it) from the Fed was that it is so convinced that any inflation spike will be temporary it is just going to completely ignore price data for the rest of the year. Well, good luck to it – but I remain convinced that it will be caught with its pants down and be left scarpering to play catch-up from behind its rear-view mirror as inflation gets out of hand. Either that, or it actually wants a run on inflation to whittle down the value of the mountains of debt. As such, gold remains an excellent place to be and Roy-Byrne is convinced we will see a major surge in the yellow metal in the next couple of years – although first we need to see gold outperforming the madness of the stock market.

Read HERE: Location Sciences – ‘in the interests of shareholders if broker option only partially exercised’. Er, what about the rest of the fundraising?!

Perhaps more encouragingly, silver is heading north too. Whilst gold toys with the $1800 mark, silver is having a go at $27 – just $2 short of the seven-year high posted last August as gold chalked up its all-time high of $2063. I guess that means either we are about to hit the top of this run or the price could explode higher if it gets to $30! My own view is that the market will wake up to what the Fed is playing at long before the Fed hikes rates. After all, the market is a forward-looking mechanism and typically runs 9 months or more ahead of the fact. So I’m a bit more optimistic than Jordan Roy-Byrne and believe that gold will head back up towards $2,000 by year-end.

Read HERE: Verditek – what will the auditors say about the carrying value of inventory if the company has not already gone bust?

There are all manner of reasons why I believe the gold-bull could return much sooner than some people expect: stocks are way over-priced in my view and if the current irrational exuberance continues for much longer the stock market is surely heading into crash territory – or at the very least a very sharp correction. And if the stock market is running for the hills, investors will need somewhere to park their cash. But at the same time I believe inflation will continue to firm, and that means that cold hard cash will be losing value – which surely increases the attraction of the yellow stuff. What if the famous V-shaped recovery runs out of Va-Va-Voom? What if the bond markets finally baulk at levels of governments debt? These seem to me to be pretty obvious developments, but what if there is a Black Swan? Taiwan, Ukraine for starters? A new Covid variant which evades the current vaccines? What about another big investment blow-up? – we’ve had a few tremors already but what if a really big player gets into trouble? I smell trouble. Sell in May? Stocks yes, Gold no. Plenty to think about as I warm another can of beans by the fire.

Tern – AGM Result bodes badly, however the board polishes the looming cash crisis turd. Read more from Nigel Somerville HERE

Filed under: gold, Bidstack, Trevor Brown, Location Sciences, Verditek, Tern, Nigel Somerville

Atalaya Mining - Q3 performance sees increased production guidance, further share price upside

10/18/2021

OptiBiotix Health - interims, much more to come...

10/15/2021

Barratt Developments & Vertu Motors - more progress says Chris Bailey...

10/14/2021

Orcadian Energy - good farm-out and direction of travel. Buy says Peter Brailey...

10/13/2021

Central Asia Metals - Q3 operations update boosts shares, looks more to come...

10/12/2021

Imperial Brands - full-year trading statement, Income Buy...

10/11/2021

Headlam - still a Buy following CEO change? Chris Bailey reviews...

10/08/2021

Tesco is a boring Buy and Imperial Brands shares still look good also writes Chris Bailey...

10/07/2021

Panther Metals - a more drilling speculative buy says Nigel Somerville...

10/06/2021

Horizonte Minerals remains on track to reach production at Araguaia. Buy says Gary Newman...

10/05/2021

Jadestone Energy - new well onstream further boosts shares, more to come...

10/04/2021

Anglo Asian Mining - interims, remains a Buy...

10/01/2021

Good news for both easyJet & Smiths Group shareholders says Chris Bailey...

09/30/2021

United Oil & Gas - potential upside far outweighs the risks considers Gary Newman...

09/29/2021

Metals Exploration - interims, more to come as access to further resource is developed

09/27/2021

Tandem Group - positive interims & outlook...

09/24/2021

PZ Cussons - a bad day Buy suggests Chris Bailey...

09/23/2021

Touchstar - interims & expects full-year ahead of expectations, Buy says HotStockRockets...

09/22/2021

Kier Group will undoubtedly like more government spending says Chris Bailey...

09/21/2021

Jadestone Energy - interims, production and cash flow growth to come...

09/20/2021

B.P. Marsh & Partners - half-year trading update, reasons for confidence...

09/17/2021

AltynGold - interims, results of capex look promising...

09/16/2021

Horizonte Minerals - project funding nearing a conclusion. Buy says Gary Newman...

09/15/2021

Wishbone Gold - further step to exploration progress. An update from HotStockRockets...

09/14/2021

Gold & Bluebird Merchant Ventures a buy? Nigel Somerville writes...

09/13/2021

Asiamet Resources - drilling update highlights further potential, Buy...

09/10/2021

CMC Markets - buy the recent weakness? Gary Newman reviews...

09/09/2021

Still a Headlam lover post its first half numbers says Chris Bailey

09/08/2021

EnQuest - interims, some production disappointment but still clear value potential?...

09/07/2021

Jadestone Energy - long-term attractions from this successful share tip?...

09/06/2021

Essentra - further recovery upside...

09/03/2021

Barclays - acquisition news. Still two quid & out? Chris Bailey reviews...

09/02/2021

Polymetal - value & growth potential? Gary Newman writes...

09/01/2021

Kefi Gold & Copper - more positive news considers HotStockRockets...

08/31/2021

Kefi Gold & Copper - Tulu Kapi funding update. Positive but how much?...

08/27/2021

Touchstone Exploration - Q2 update, remains a Buy says HotStockRockets...

08/26/2021

Anglo Asian Mining - Zafar maiden JORC Mineral Resource adds to potential

08/25/2021

Ibstock - based on broader issues than the Sunday press suggested, but a buy says Chris Bailey

08/24/2021

SkinBioTherapeutics - Business Update, high margin profit potential moving closer...

08/23/2021

OptiBiotix Health - extends Seed Health territories. Strong Buy...

08/20/2021

Jubilee Metals - positive production and prices says Gary Newman...

08/19/2021

BP - Q2 2021 results, creating value now & for the future?...

08/18/2021

When the FTSE 100 dumps next, have a look at Prudential says Chris Bailey

08/17/2021

Empresaria - longer-term upside, but what about the short-term? A review from HotStockRockets...

08/16/2021

Seed Innovations - a buy again? A review from HotStockRockets...

08/13/2021

Ariana Resources - more drilling results & time to buy more? Nigel Somerville writes...

08/12/2021

Still a Rolls-Royce believer says Chris Bailey...

08/11/2021

Gold and gold stocks - what is ahead? Nigel Somerville reviews...

08/10/2021

OptiBiotix Health - shares up on trading & commercial update, much further to go...

08/09/2021

Impellam - half-year recovery but more to come...

08/06/2021

Empresaria - half-year trading update, recovery building says HotStockRockets

08/05/2021

Johnson Matthey - still excited about prospects writes Chris Bailey...

08/04/2021

Rio Tinto - the story remains so much more than just cultural heritage says Chris Bailey

08/03/2021

Metals Exploration - Q2 challenges but a better outlook considers HotStockRockets

08/02/2021

Castillo Copper - further copper intersections & visible mineralisation, Buy

07/30/2021

British American Tobacco shares continue to offer attractive total return hopes says Chris Bailey

07/29/2021

Reckitt - recent share price decline too severe? Chris Bailey reviews...

07/28/2021

Centamin - remains a buy following Q2 report says Nigel Somerville

07/27/2021

Union Jack Oil - West Newton update, clear upcoming catalysts...

07/26/2021

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - operational update shows progress is being made, Buy...

07/23/2021

Saga offers interesting exposure to the travel industry bouncing back considers Gary Newman

07/22/2021

easyJet - ten quid or more share price again by the end of the year? Chris Bailey writes...

07/21/2021

Headlam Group - a recovery buy?...

07/20/2021

Burberry - chav challenges? Chris Bailey reviews...

07/19/2021

Orcadian Energy - a newly-listed AIM oiler Buy suggests Peter Brailey...

07/16/2021

Kosmos Energy - production & share price upside potential says Gary Newman...

07/15/2021

Cairn Energy - a lot to like at this price? Gary Newman reviews...

07/14/2021

DS Smith - further recovery & structural growth potential following full-year results?...

07/13/2021

GlaxoSmithKline - a recovery buy...

07/12/2021

Wm Morrison - recommended offer, but is there still more to come?

07/09/2021

Pick and choose your stocks - and if you need to houses - carefully says Chris Bailey...

07/08/2021

After Wm Morrison, J Sainsbury next? Chris Bailey writes...

07/07/2021

I3 Energy has turned things around - plenty of further potential considers Gary Newman...

07/06/2021

AEX Gold - Nalunaq and exploration update, Buy...

07/05/2021

Impellam Group - a recovery buy suggest Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore...

07/02/2021

MyHealthChecked - acquisition, building a business of sustainable scale?...

07/01/2021

Burberry CEO deciding to leave a problem? Chris Bailey reviews...

06/30/2021

GlaxoSmithKline - a buy despite the unexcitable CEO? Chris Bailey writes...

06/29/2021

Kefi Gold & Copper - Ethiopia election operational update, Buy...

06/28/2021

Kier - open offer result following subsidiary sale, recovery buy?...

06/25/2021

Ariana Resources - more very positive drilling results. Buy says Nigel Somerville...

06/24/2021

DS Smith - strange name but a great company says Chris Bailey...

06/23/2021

Horizonte Minerals - short-term delay largely irrelevant. Buy says Gary Newman...

06/22/2021

Empresaria - a summer of positive macro-economic tailwinds ahead? From HotStockRockets...

06/21/2021

Pharos Energy - oil discovery and further potential catalysts says HotStockRockets...

06/18/2021

B.P. Marsh & Partners - full-year results, recovery opportunities...

06/17/2021

Serica Energy - plenty to make me think that it will continue to do very well says Gary Newman

06/16/2021

EnQuest - new debt facility, recovery buy says HotStockRockets

06/15/2021

Kefi Gold & Copper - still a risk-reward buy following executive bonus plan victory for investors...

06/14/2021

Asiamet Resources - progressing several key workstreams. Buy says HotStockRockets...

06/11/2021

British American Tobacco - positive pre-close update. Remains a Buy says Chris Bailey...

06/10/2021

Reckitt to sell a business in China but still loves the emerging markets. Chris Bailey writes...

06/09/2021

Bushveld Minerals - vanadium about to enter an up-cycle? Gary Newman writes...

06/08/2021

Anglo Asian Mining - how pleasing and exciting the results announcement?...

06/07/2021

SkinBioTherapeutics - positive study results, still multi-bagger potential?...

06/04/2021

With a new team in place Afentra is a buy says Gary Newman

06/03/2021

Still excited about prospects for Johnson Matthey says Chris Bailey...

06/02/2021

Central Asia Metals - a buy? A review by HotStockRockets...

06/01/2021

Predator Oil & Gas - Morocco and Trinidad updates, more to come from this great share tip?...

05/28/2021

Playtech - good sale & a sensible update. Still undervalued suggests Chris Bailey...

05/27/2021

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