Aston Martin - needing much more help than even James Bond can offer?

BREAKING: Expose Part 2: That Private Discord Versarien chat forum, Neill Ricketts orders his men what to post on BBs. Read from Tom Winnifrith, The Sheriff of AIM, HERE

The comedy that is life as a publicly listed stock of Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) continues apace. I see Nigel was moved a few weeks ago to highlight the lunacy around rumours about a big potential new investor into the business. Meanwhile, I observed in my latest bearish update in November that 'my favourite line for insight remains the x5.5 net debt to adjusted ebitda multiple'. Well I must apologise for the conservatism of my comments back then...

Read HERE: Bad news for those mugged by the London & Capital Finance crooks – very few will get FSCS compensation

Oh yes, a latest update is another shocker – which is why the shares are further materially down. There are so many negatives contributing to a further heightened leverage level but essentially it comes down to 'lower sales, higher selling costs and lower margins', which is never a good combination of factors. It is blaming an underperformance in Europe but we all know that the problems run more deeply than this. After all, this is why the company quotes 'adjusted EBITDA' which it now sees for full year 2019 as being down at £130-140 million with an equivalent margin of either side of 13%. And do you know what it estimated as recently as six months ago? 20%...

Read HERE: Itaconix – “Trading Update”… but why doesn’t it detail the loss & cash burn from this Woodford “leading innovator”?

Naturally, it has all sort of excuses up its sleeve including 'higher than anticipated retail and customer financing support' and 'weaker core model mix'. And, naturally, it bigs up its hopes for the new SUV where apparently the 'order book has built rapidly to c.1,800 since it opened on 20 November 2019, c.1,200 of which are customer-specified'. But more insightful is the near-desperation in the comment that 'we also remain in discussions with potential strategic investors which may or may not involve an equity investment into the Company'.

Bulletin Board Moron of the week contest: In honour of Neill Ricketts. Enter HERE

The trouble is that a leverage ratio in the x6s+ makes you desperate. The company highlights it will provide an update with its full year numbers on 27th February, but there are no easy answers. The new Bond film may be a marketing opportunity but even the ingenuity of 007 will struggle to get the company out of this hole. It really better hope its potential 'greater fool' investor puckers up some assistance, otherwise the land of more desperate money-raising and further squeezes on equity values awaits. Suffice to say I am not going anywhere near the shares...although if I am forced to test drive one of the cars my arm just might be squeezed....

Sainsbury, Morrison and the two quid bargain bucket level. Read more from Chris Bailey HERE

Filed under: Aston Martin, Discord Versarien chat forum, London & Capital Finance, Neill Ricketts

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Chris Bailey updates on Rolls-Royce & GVC Holdings...

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Versarien - when & at what price the attempted bailout fundraise?

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03/09/2020

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Aggreko, Ibstock, Ashtead & Robert Walters update - any value amongst them?

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