Koovs - viable or just a money pit? Gary Newman reviews

TrakM8 AGM – another day another profits warning on the way says Tom Winnifrith HERE

I came in for a fair bit of criticism when I covered Indian fashion retailer Koovs (KOOV) negatively and suggested it was a sell or avoid back at the start of July. Since then the share price has pretty much halved from the 20p level that it was trading at, so I feel that my criticism of the company was justified, and my view has been vindicated – hopefully some of you who have read my articles and were holding at the time also saved yourselves from seeing the value of your investment halve. A number of people have been asking me what my view is of the company now that the share price has dropped back to around 10.6p to buy, so I felt that it was time to take another look.

Xeros Results tomorrow – share price tells you that this Woodford dog is almost out of cash (again). Read HERE

I have never been a fan of Koovs - although for a while the market disagreed with my assessment and the share price soared - as I’ve always struggled to see how the business model worked, when so much cash is having to be injected and the returns from that investment don’t appear to justify the expenditure. People will point to the deals with HT (Hindustan Times) Media and Future Lifestyle Fashion, but I would argue that both were of far more benefit to the third party than they were to existing investors. The deal with HT Media is for advertising services in return for equity, with £17.1 million being paid in shares in four tranches over four years, along with £6.9 million in cash over the same period. This will of course reduce the eyewatering amount that Koovs has been spending on advertising and marketing in terms of cash burn, that comes at a price when the market cap of the company is just £33 million. It means that when the next tranche of shares is issued for advertising services in August 2019, then the £4.28 million payment in shares would represent dilution of around 13%, based on the current valuation – although I know a lot can happen in the meantime. The first tranche has been issued at a price of 10p.

Dunelm - the frilly curtains bounceback continues says Chris Bailey HERE

The equity part of the deal is based on a three month average closing share price, so potentially it has an element of ‘death spiral’ financing to it, especially as HT Media will have to offload shares along the way to remain below 30% during the term of the deal – I would guess that it’ll cash in as much as it can along the way anyway as and when each new tranche of shares are issued – there certainly doesn’t seem to have been any TR1 major holdings notification from HT Media. The company also recently raised just under £5.8 million via an investment by Future Lifestyle Fashions, also at 10p, yet there has been no TR1 notification for this either, so it remains to be seen whether or not Future still owns all of the 24.8% of the company that was issued to it. A further £12 million net came via a placing at 15p, with chairman Lord Alli taking £1.5 million worth of shares.

FireAngel – shares soar on partnering agreement, but how’s overall trading? Steve Moore reviews HERE

If we now move onto the recently released final results for the year up until March 31 2018, we can see that revenue in that period was down considerably compared to the previous year – £6.35 million compared to £8.68 million – which is rarely a good sign for a company supposedly at the growth stage. That resulted in a net loss of more than £15.3 million, and although lower than the £19.2 million loss for the previous year, it came during a period in which the company was supposed to be saving money! Operating expenses were an eye-watering £12.8 million, and of that nearly £7.8 million was spent on marketing. The previous year the marketing spend was £12.7 million, so if the company intends to once again ramp up its marketing activity I’d expect it to return to those levels or even higher. So even though the company is now sitting on maybe £15 million – being generous when taking into account cash burn plus the cost of the equity raises – that will probably only last it a year at best, even when taking into account the HT Media credit. That certainly doesn’t give it long to turn things around, and based on past performance, throwing a load more money at marketing is no guarantee that it will be a success this time – especially when you take it alongside falling sales revenues.

redT Energy – Praise be to the taxpayer!, selected for a UK public sector framework contract. Read from HotStockRockets HERE

Even though the share price has dropped back a long way I still wouldn’t be tempted at this level, as it is only cheap if the company can actually turn the business around and prove that the model works. It would be far more prudent to wait for positive signs that things are heading in the right direction – if they ever do – and then invest, even if the share price is higher, as at that point it will have been proven that the business is actually viable rather than just a money pit.

Should Wide Spreads Make You Delay Selling? Aye, There's the Rub. Malcolm Stacey writes HERE

Filed under: Koovs, TrakM8, Xeros, Woodford dog, Dunelm, FireAngel, redT Energy, share spreads

Three shares which rose on a shabby day from Chris Bailey

05/24/2019

Marks & Spencer says it is getting match fit, should you back the rights issue?

05/23/2019

Updated thoughts on WH Smith, Halfords and Greencore from Chris Bailey

05/22/2019

Ryanair - what to make of it following results & those of great peer easyJet last week?

05/21/2019

Anglo Asian Mining - what after stellar 2018 results? Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore review...

05/20/2019

Genel Energy has great growth potential says Gary Newman

05/17/2019

Getech - 2018 results, remains a buy considers the HotStockRockets team

05/16/2019

Ariana Resources - more positive news as we wait for more numbers says Nigel Somerville

05/15/2019

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - a buy from HotStockRockets

05/14/2019

Purplebricks headed for 50p says Lucian Miers

05/13/2019

Union Jack Oil - potential share price catalyst, as date set for Wressle planning appeal

05/09/2019

Purplebricks - keep selling says Tom Winnifrith

05/08/2019

Reach4Entertainment - 2018 results, much more to come?

05/07/2019

The implied valuation for Bould Opportunities looks crazy - strong sell says Gary Newman

05/03/2019

Optibiotix - full year numbers, the share price reaction wrong says Tom Winnifrith

05/02/2019

Sirius Minerals - the current drop a good buying opportunity? Gary Newman reviews...

05/01/2019

WPP & Royal Bank of Scotland - Chris Bailey reviews...

04/30/2019

Tesla remains a sell after Q1 fiasco says Lucian Miers

04/29/2019

Barclays, Sainsbury & Taylor Wimpey - Chris Bailey reviews...

04/26/2019

Dividend Munchers Easter 2019 update (and still beating Neil Woodford) says Nigel Somerville

04/24/2019

Gem Diamonds looks too cheap down here - buy for the longer term says Gary Newman

04/23/2019

Atalaya Mining remains a buy after recent updates says Gary Newman

04/18/2019

A couple of ShareProphets share tips of the year updates

04/17/2019

Lessons from Plus500 and time to sell more Purplebricks. From Lucian Miers...

04/16/2019

Polymetal - all that glistens can be gold says Chris Bailey

04/15/2019

Central Asia Metals produces another good set of results and remains a buy says Gary Newman

04/12/2019

Barclays - a low sentiment today to a mid-range sentiment tomorrow play suggests Chris Bailey

04/11/2019

Sosandar - are the shares expensive or cheap after trading update? Nigel Somerville reviews...

04/10/2019

Quilter - a buy if you are a bull on the UK market says Chris Bailey

04/09/2019

Coro Energy - enough potential reward from here for a speculative investment considers Gary Newman

04/08/2019

Sosandar slides again back towards IPO price - time to buy back in? Tom Winnifrith reviews...

04/05/2019

Tern - placing at just 8.5p and an excuse that just does not wash says Nigel Somerville

04/04/2019

Versarien and its shocking new American Appointment. A sell from Lucian Miers

04/03/2019

easyJet slides again but time to pull back on the share purchasing throttle?

04/02/2019

A German Teutonic train ratio tells you that FirstGroup remains cheap suggests Chris Bailey

04/01/2019

Petra Diamonds could add some sparkle to your portfolio suggests Gary Newman

03/29/2019

Accesso - still a sell suggests Steve Moore

03/28/2019

Union Jack Oil - funding at a not great price... but look at the potential of the projects it is for

03/27/2019

If Royal Dutch Shell is going to be a utility giant it has got to buy big says Chris Bailey

03/26/2019

IQE - a good opportunity for bears with patience says Lucian Miers

03/25/2019

Next - if you want an annuity large cap core non-food retailer...

03/22/2019

Argo Blockchain - now a buy?

03/21/2019

Wood Group - chill out despite fall on results?

03/20/2019

Prudential - snaffling a few shares a suitable compromise? Chris Bailey writes...

03/19/2019

Anglo Asian Mining - long term buy and hold says Gary Newman

03/18/2019

Dignity: still worrying about competition in death warns Chris Bailey

03/15/2019

Concepta - signs up with Boots: Game ON. From HotStockRockets

03/14/2019

Further short term dips in Avesoro Resources will offer a good buying opportunity says Gary Newman

03/13/2019

Telit Communications - patience will reward those who are short at these levels says Lucian Miers

03/12/2019

Is it worth taking a gamble on the Guyana drill of Eco Atlantic? Gary Newman reviews...

03/11/2019

SDX Energy should perform well in 2019 and beyond says Gary Newman

03/08/2019

Synectics - results subdued, but confident of good progress from here

03/07/2019

A Turbulent Week at Tesla - sell before it is too late says Lucian Miers

03/06/2019

Abcam - review of a clever, innovative (but also fat cat pay) company by Chris Bailey

03/05/2019

Dividend Munchers Update by Nigel Somerville

03/04/2019

Centamin - the market has vastly over-reacted argues Gary Newman

03/01/2019

RNS potpourri - M&S and Ocado, GVC, ITV, Taylor Wimpey...and badboy Metro Bank from Chris Bailey

02/28/2019

Tesla - shorters patience will be rewarded in 2019 says Lucian Miers

02/27/2019

Reach4Entertainment - I am going to be honest ref. placing and acquisition. From Tom Winnifrith

02/25/2019

Purplebricks - catastrophic warning: target price 0p says Tom Winnifrith

02/22/2019

Lloyds - you cannot eat relative performance... but still bet on the black horse says Chris Bailey

02/21/2019

Yourgene - debt cleared; this is an amazing deal (plus comment on Hardman) from Tom Winnifrith

02/20/2019

Whitbread has a plan and Restaurant Group patently does not says Chris Bailey

02/15/2019

Thoughts on The US Market Juggernaut - and Tesla & IQE - from Lucian Miers

02/14/2019

Ariana Resources - Nigel Somerville updates on buy tip for 2019

02/13/2019

Is the Petrofac share price collapse a good buying or trading opportunity? Gary Newman reviews...

02/12/2019

Red Rock Resources – updates on Congo progress, Buy to almost double says Tom Winnifrith

02/11/2019

Thomas Cook - not buying its holidays but still liking its shares says Chris Bailey

02/08/2019

Union Jack Oil - various potential share price catalysts by HotStockRockets

02/07/2019

Centrica - good total return value? Chris Bailey reviews

02/06/2019

Tesla Q4 earnings call - One More Thing. From Lucian Miers

02/05/2019

Reach4Entertainment - 2018 significantly ahead & also expects 2019 ahead; Buy

02/04/2019

Is Rank really so dank? Chris Bailey reviews

02/01/2019

Dominos Pizza, Crest Nicholson, Royal Mail & PZ Cussons - any buys amongst them?

01/31/2019

IQE - sell the rally says Lucian Miers

01/30/2019

Is Tesco talking sense? Chris Bailey reviews

01/29/2019

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - rapid progress to positive cash flow?

01/28/2019

Obtala - Long Term Incentive Plan announcement... but no need for shareholder anger here

01/25/2019

I told you Metro Bank was dodgy...and not to underestimate Chinese chavs re. Burberry

01/24/2019

KAZ Minerals has the potential to become a copper mining giant in the future considers Gary Newman

01/23/2019

Character Group - reassuring AGM trading update, a speculative buy?

01/22/2019

Update on Flybe - Short Term Lifeline for the Retail Punter from Lucian Miers

01/21/2019

Obtala - quarterly update, now supercharging development. From HotStockRockets

01/18/2019

Headlam - time to buy? Chris Bailey considers...

01/17/2019

Telit - auto sale on track, but trading statement is a load of cobblers. Sell says Tom Winnifrith

01/16/2019

Shoe Zone - a value proposition suited to the challenging consumer environment?

01/15/2019

Flybe put out of its misery for 1p. Next up for near wipeout is Interserve says Lucian Miers

01/14/2019

Sosander - Q3 trading statement update from Nigel Somerville

01/11/2019

Union Jack Oil - Biscathorpe-2 well spud, let the excitement commence…

01/10/2019

Christmas trading update time - Morrisons, Greene King or Joules a buy?

01/09/2019

Bowleven - time for a small drop of Ouzo as 15p special dividend is announced says Nigel Somerville

01/08/2019

KEFI Minerals - shares slightly lower on Tulu Kapi project update, BUT...

01/07/2019

Next - no profits growth... but that is fine argues Chris Bailey

01/04/2019

Five slam-dunk shares to sell for 2019 by Nigel Somerville

01/03/2019

A share tip of the year for 2019 from Tom Winnifrith

01/02/2019

Rockhopper Exploration - a long term buy at the current price?

01/01/2019

Highland Gold is well worth considering says Gary Newman

12/31/2018

A share tip of the year for 2019 from Gary Newman of ShareProphets

12/28/2018

Investment is all about passion...not passion investments says Chris Bailey

12/27/2018

Professor Malcolm Stacey with his World Famous Christmas Lecture...

12/24/2018

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