Koovs - viable or just a money pit? Gary Newman reviews

TrakM8 AGM – another day another profits warning on the way says Tom Winnifrith HERE

I came in for a fair bit of criticism when I covered Indian fashion retailer Koovs (KOOV) negatively and suggested it was a sell or avoid back at the start of July. Since then the share price has pretty much halved from the 20p level that it was trading at, so I feel that my criticism of the company was justified, and my view has been vindicated – hopefully some of you who have read my articles and were holding at the time also saved yourselves from seeing the value of your investment halve. A number of people have been asking me what my view is of the company now that the share price has dropped back to around 10.6p to buy, so I felt that it was time to take another look.

Xeros Results tomorrow – share price tells you that this Woodford dog is almost out of cash (again). Read HERE

I have never been a fan of Koovs - although for a while the market disagreed with my assessment and the share price soared - as I’ve always struggled to see how the business model worked, when so much cash is having to be injected and the returns from that investment don’t appear to justify the expenditure. People will point to the deals with HT (Hindustan Times) Media and Future Lifestyle Fashion, but I would argue that both were of far more benefit to the third party than they were to existing investors. The deal with HT Media is for advertising services in return for equity, with £17.1 million being paid in shares in four tranches over four years, along with £6.9 million in cash over the same period. This will of course reduce the eyewatering amount that Koovs has been spending on advertising and marketing in terms of cash burn, that comes at a price when the market cap of the company is just £33 million. It means that when the next tranche of shares is issued for advertising services in August 2019, then the £4.28 million payment in shares would represent dilution of around 13%, based on the current valuation – although I know a lot can happen in the meantime. The first tranche has been issued at a price of 10p.

Dunelm - the frilly curtains bounceback continues says Chris Bailey HERE

The equity part of the deal is based on a three month average closing share price, so potentially it has an element of ‘death spiral’ financing to it, especially as HT Media will have to offload shares along the way to remain below 30% during the term of the deal – I would guess that it’ll cash in as much as it can along the way anyway as and when each new tranche of shares are issued – there certainly doesn’t seem to have been any TR1 major holdings notification from HT Media. The company also recently raised just under £5.8 million via an investment by Future Lifestyle Fashions, also at 10p, yet there has been no TR1 notification for this either, so it remains to be seen whether or not Future still owns all of the 24.8% of the company that was issued to it. A further £12 million net came via a placing at 15p, with chairman Lord Alli taking £1.5 million worth of shares.

FireAngel – shares soar on partnering agreement, but how’s overall trading? Steve Moore reviews HERE

If we now move onto the recently released final results for the year up until March 31 2018, we can see that revenue in that period was down considerably compared to the previous year – £6.35 million compared to £8.68 million – which is rarely a good sign for a company supposedly at the growth stage. That resulted in a net loss of more than £15.3 million, and although lower than the £19.2 million loss for the previous year, it came during a period in which the company was supposed to be saving money! Operating expenses were an eye-watering £12.8 million, and of that nearly £7.8 million was spent on marketing. The previous year the marketing spend was £12.7 million, so if the company intends to once again ramp up its marketing activity I’d expect it to return to those levels or even higher. So even though the company is now sitting on maybe £15 million – being generous when taking into account cash burn plus the cost of the equity raises – that will probably only last it a year at best, even when taking into account the HT Media credit. That certainly doesn’t give it long to turn things around, and based on past performance, throwing a load more money at marketing is no guarantee that it will be a success this time – especially when you take it alongside falling sales revenues.

redT Energy – Praise be to the taxpayer!, selected for a UK public sector framework contract. Read from HotStockRockets HERE

Even though the share price has dropped back a long way I still wouldn’t be tempted at this level, as it is only cheap if the company can actually turn the business around and prove that the model works. It would be far more prudent to wait for positive signs that things are heading in the right direction – if they ever do – and then invest, even if the share price is higher, as at that point it will have been proven that the business is actually viable rather than just a money pit.

Should Wide Spreads Make You Delay Selling? Aye, There's the Rub. Malcolm Stacey writes HERE

Filed under: Koovs, TrakM8, Xeros, Woodford dog, Dunelm, FireAngel, redT Energy, share spreads

Lloyds - you cannot eat relative performance... but still bet on the black horse says Chris Bailey

02/21/2019

Yourgene - debt cleared; this is an amazing deal (plus comment on Hardman) from Tom Winnifrith

02/20/2019

Whitbread has a plan and Restaurant Group patently does not says Chris Bailey

02/15/2019

Thoughts on The US Market Juggernaut - and Tesla & IQE - from Lucian Miers

02/14/2019

Ariana Resources - Nigel Somerville updates on buy tip for 2019

02/13/2019

Is the Petrofac share price collapse a good buying or trading opportunity? Gary Newman reviews...

02/12/2019

Red Rock Resources – updates on Congo progress, Buy to almost double says Tom Winnifrith

02/11/2019

Thomas Cook - not buying its holidays but still liking its shares says Chris Bailey

02/08/2019

Union Jack Oil - various potential share price catalysts by HotStockRockets

02/07/2019

Centrica - good total return value? Chris Bailey reviews

02/06/2019

Tesla Q4 earnings call - One More Thing. From Lucian Miers

02/05/2019

Reach4Entertainment - 2018 significantly ahead & also expects 2019 ahead; Buy

02/04/2019

Is Rank really so dank? Chris Bailey reviews

02/01/2019

Dominos Pizza, Crest Nicholson, Royal Mail & PZ Cussons - any buys amongst them?

01/31/2019

IQE - sell the rally says Lucian Miers

01/30/2019

Is Tesco talking sense? Chris Bailey reviews

01/29/2019

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - rapid progress to positive cash flow?

01/28/2019

Obtala - Long Term Incentive Plan announcement... but no need for shareholder anger here

01/25/2019

I told you Metro Bank was dodgy...and not to underestimate Chinese chavs re. Burberry

01/24/2019

KAZ Minerals has the potential to become a copper mining giant in the future considers Gary Newman

01/23/2019

Character Group - reassuring AGM trading update, a speculative buy?

01/22/2019

Update on Flybe - Short Term Lifeline for the Retail Punter from Lucian Miers

01/21/2019

Obtala - quarterly update, now supercharging development. From HotStockRockets

01/18/2019

Headlam - time to buy? Chris Bailey considers...

01/17/2019

Telit - auto sale on track, but trading statement is a load of cobblers. Sell says Tom Winnifrith

01/16/2019

Shoe Zone - a value proposition suited to the challenging consumer environment?

01/15/2019

Flybe put out of its misery for 1p. Next up for near wipeout is Interserve says Lucian Miers

01/14/2019

Sosander - Q3 trading statement update from Nigel Somerville

01/11/2019

Union Jack Oil - Biscathorpe-2 well spud, let the excitement commence…

01/10/2019

Christmas trading update time - Morrisons, Greene King or Joules a buy?

01/09/2019

Bowleven - time for a small drop of Ouzo as 15p special dividend is announced says Nigel Somerville

01/08/2019

KEFI Minerals - shares slightly lower on Tulu Kapi project update, BUT...

01/07/2019

Next - no profits growth... but that is fine argues Chris Bailey

01/04/2019

Five slam-dunk shares to sell for 2019 by Nigel Somerville

01/03/2019

A share tip of the year for 2019 from Tom Winnifrith

01/02/2019

Rockhopper Exploration - a long term buy at the current price?

01/01/2019

Highland Gold is well worth considering says Gary Newman

12/31/2018

A share tip of the year for 2019 from Gary Newman of ShareProphets

12/28/2018

Investment is all about passion...not passion investments says Chris Bailey

12/27/2018

Professor Malcolm Stacey with his World Famous Christmas Lecture...

12/24/2018

What looks interesting in the FTSE 100? Chris Bailey reviews...

12/21/2018

Optibiotix - board strengthened, still a buy?

12/20/2018

Boohoo vs ASOS - could one unravel very soon indeed?

12/19/2018

Retail & SSE plc omnishambles, but some value in the sectors? Chris Bailey reviews...

12/18/2018

Lessons from AA plc. Lucian Miers writes...

12/17/2018

PZ Cussons - time for a research trip to Nigeria? Chris Bailey writes...

12/14/2018

Wood Group, Superdry, Dixons Carphone & DP Poland - any buys from a busy RNS day?

12/13/2018

KEFI Minerals - positive regulatory consent news in the coming weeks?

12/12/2018

Thoughts on Thomas Cook - stay away, Short Flybe instead says Lucian Miers

12/11/2018

Petropavlovsk - POX Hub processing milestone, Buy

12/10/2018

Yourgene - Premaitha as was - interim numbers not impressive, but still a strong buy?

12/07/2018

Numis statement shows why the finnCap IPO is such a stinker says Tom Winnifrith

12/06/2018

Synectics - remains a recovery buy say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore

12/04/2018

Blue Prism Group - argues it is pleased in trading update, but shares still a sell?

11/29/2018

Greencore & Ibstock - a tale of two disposals from Chris Bailey

11/28/2018

Premier Oil could see a swift rise when oil bounces considers Gary Newman

11/27/2018

Optibiotix - Greek deal news via Adam Reynolds keyboard, but better to come. Buy.

11/26/2018

Updated thoughts on Tesla - stay short says Lucian Miers

11/23/2018

Three larger cap buy ideas from Chris Bailey

11/22/2018

AO World - interims argue remains confident, but can high growth rating really be justified?

11/21/2018

Dividend stocks & what to make of the Brexit omnishambles from Nigel Somerville

11/20/2018

Sirius Minerals - patience will pay longer term argues Gary Newman

11/19/2018

Falanx - shares to still more than double?

11/16/2018

Victoria - update on bond fiasco, remains a sell says Lucian Miers

11/14/2018

Glencore looks too cheap considers Gary Newman

11/13/2018

Bowleven - raising my stance back to buy says Nigel Somerville

11/12/2018

First Derivatives - it is smoke & mirrors, keep selling says Lucian Miers

11/09/2018

Buy ITV and Marks & Spencer?

11/08/2018

Imperial Brands - fade the moral outrage & buy says Chris Bailey

11/07/2018

Bushveld Minerals - banking some profit prudent, but still more to come?

11/06/2018

Keep buying any weakness in Centamin as the company is now back on track says Gary Newman

11/05/2018

Horizonte Minerals - I remain confident following feasibility study says Gary Newman

11/02/2018

Obtala - sharpens focus & a fundraising, still a buy says HotStockRockets

11/01/2018

Restaurant Group - what to make of Wagamama acquisition? Chris Bailey reviews

10/31/2018

Cairn Energy will see rapid production growth in the coming years - Buy says Gary Newman

10/30/2018

Barryroe could still come good for Lansdowne Oil - speculative buy says Gary Newman

10/29/2018

WPP advertises a shocker - where now?

10/26/2018

Barclays or Metro Bank - who to fancy in a financials cage fight?

10/25/2018

Whitbread - a core FTSE-100 holding? Chris Bailey reviews

10/24/2018

Anglo Asian Mining - a golden buy?

10/23/2018

Alba Mineral Resources - updates from Wales and Horse Hill, excitement soon to be sparked?

10/22/2018

Shoe Zone - shares jump on ‘ahead of expectations’ update, but still an income buy

10/19/2018

SOCO International - a lot to like at this share price level, buy says Gary Newman

10/18/2018

Ariana Resources - gold production & exploration positives. Nigel Somerville writes

10/17/2018

Shenanigans at First Derivatives Do Not Look Good. Sell says Lucian Miers

10/16/2018

Five large caps for capital growth from Chris Bailey

10/15/2018

Dunelm - am I at danger of buying some frilly curtains? (and more). Chris Bailey writes

10/12/2018

Synectics - a buy for recovery say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore

10/11/2018

Versarien remains a sell for the brave (& First Derivatives). Lucian Miers writes

10/10/2018

Rose Petroleum - a buy says HotStockRockets

10/09/2018

Union Jack Oil - adding to material potential catalysts. Buy says HotStockRockets

10/08/2018

Tlou Energy - a speculative buy considers Gary Newman

10/05/2018

Tesco - shares now too cheap? Chris Bailey reviews

10/04/2018

easyJet & Royal Mail - where now after share price shockers? Chris Bailey reviews

10/03/2018

Goldplat - post full-year results, a buy suggests HotStockRockets

10/02/2018

Columbus Energy Resources - after interims remains a buy says HotStockRockets

10/01/2018

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - updates on projects, remains a buy says HotStockRockets

09/28/2018

Next & Imperial Brands - following news, updated views from Chris Bailey

09/27/2018

Why I would short Time Out Group says Gary Newman

09/26/2018

Randgold merger - what to do? Chris Bailey reviews

09/25/2018

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