Hurricane Energy - it is not in the Vomit list... but could be by the end of March...

Woodford Investment Management files accounts… £14 million reward for failure. Read HERE

Tom Winnifrith focused on Hurricane Energy (HUR) in his Saturday bearcast, following a twitter exchange with a ShareProphets subscriber, with whom I have spent many a happy hour exchanging views on the investment case on the LSE asylum. Tom has invited him to write and publish his bullish views on the site – I fully support that; free speech and opposing views are the life blood of all investment case assessments. But there appears to be some confusion. Hurricane is NOT in my Vomit list of crap stocks, but it does sit in the reserve list for now. I think both Tom and the subscriber did not fully understand why I considered Hurricane worthy of a mention in my Vomit list review, and that says to me others may be equally confused. That merits clarification, and I am pleased to do so...

BREAKING: Wakey wakey FCA: Wellesley Finance PLC – another £100m mini bond accident & scandal in the making. Read HERE

Let me first be very clear on Hurricane's positives. It has cash. It is generating cash. It is a real oil producing business. Having listed on AIM as effectively an explorer in 2014 that marks the company out as one of the very few oilers to have made the journey from potential to reality while being listed. That is to be celebrated – it gives hope to so many other investment cases! However, I have highlighted before the NPV10 of the Lancaster field Early Production System has been stated by the company at $525 million (at $60 base case oil price). This compares to an equity value of £650 million as I type (let's call that $850 million) plus convertible debt of $230 million. I would suggest that difference between $525 million and $1.08 billion is the opportunity value of the very substantial 3rd party certified oil resources the company has. To realise this value the company has to demonstrate the EPS can deliver as planned, and then either commercialise the remaining resource or sell to someone who can. The fundamental issue I have on realising that investment case starts from a rather technical but absolutely fundamental point. I do find it difficult to address technical aspects when I write a review. I know some readers understand exactly what I mean and if I posted 10 acronyms followed by = crap or good, that would convey the story! But equally other readers have to think back to “O” level science days, which can be rather painful. In my day job, when I write as an Engineer to my Clients (who are often either Engineers, or used to reading engineers reports), I have a relatively homogeneous reader base. I try to hit a balance when writing here. It’s a challenge sometimes to get my point across – and hope I do, at least most of the time.

Aston Martin needs much more help than even James Bond can offer says Chris Bailey HERE

The issue I see with Hurricane is the water cut. I reviewed this in December. The point is the Lancaster field is being produced from two wells. One well is producing water as well as oil – the other is fine. The company always expected to produce some water from trapped accumulations, but the % water in the one well is above expectation. There are broadly two explanations – the watery well has intersected a significant accumulation of trapped water within fissures (cracks) in the granite rock or it's drawing water directly from the underlying aquifer. A basement structure is different to a traditional sandstone structure – the oil sits in fissures in the rock, not within the rock itself. These fissures can be horizontal / vertical / inclined and filled with oil or water. These fluids flow into the well bore to be replaced with oil sitting lower in the structure, which in turn is replaced with water from the underlying aquifer. However, if the well bore (and bear in mind these are very long horizontal well bores) intersects a fissure that is directly connected to the aquifer, that refilling process can be short circuited – water flows via that fissure system to the aquifer in preference to oil more local to the well bore. That is a key risk of basement structures. Hurricane has always been clear that it has 3D seismic derived models of the basement structures. But models are just that – they are not reality. The Greater Warwick drills on the adjacent structures in 2019, funded by Spirit Energy cannot be viewed as great successes. That puts a question mark on the company modelling capabilities of the structures.

Will latest Chris Akers ramp prove Asimilar to the previous ones? Read from Nigel Somerville, the Deputy Sheriff of AIM, HERE

We have been told further and better information will be provided at the CMD on 25th March on this issue. I can see a number of outcomes on that day:

a. Evidence is provided that trapped water was the issue with the watery well. For example that the well has been put back on production and the water cut has reduced.

b. Acknowledgement that well is likely producing aquifer water and will be abandoned.

c. Something between the A and B above.

Read HERE: Carr's Group – full-year to be in-line with expectations… or not?

If the company cannot demonstrate the EPS NPV can be delivered to plan (which has always been based on the current well stock), then it puts a question mark over the EPS value, but more importantly over the opportunity value of the contingent resources. The fact the company has made reference to a potential further Lancaster well drilled this year makes me cautious. I called this a red or black stock in my Vomit List review. It could all come good, but if it does not, then I can see a massive share price fall to reflect the reality of the asset value, warranting the Vomit list back-up place. Hurricane could be heaved to Vomit status if the CMD update on 25th March it not very positive and clear. I wish all holders well, but I will not be joining them on the register at the current time.

Anglo African Oil & Gas – 2 questions on cash or maybe I am just thick? Read from Tom Winnifrith HERE

Filed under: Hurricane Energy, Woodford, Wellesley Finance, Aston Martin, Asimilar, Carr's, AAOG

KEFI Minerals - about to rip? The HotStockRockets team writes...


Gold cracks $1800 - what to do now and is it Ouzo time yet?...


Whitbread - why you should not worry about a -80% Q1 revenue move writes Chris Bailey...


It has been a torrid time for pubs but Marstons should recover strongly reckons Gary Newman


Highland Gold Mining - update on COVID-19 response, continuing as planned...


DS Smith - respectfully Mr Market you are wrong says Chris Bailey...


Pity us poor British taxpayers bailing out Versarien plc says Tom Winnifrith...


Petra Diamonds - heading for a wipeout for equity holders? Gary Newman writes...


easyJet - data breach is not in my top three worries and I own the shares says Chris Bailey...


San Leon Energy - 2019 results & now about to capitalise on a strong position?


KEFI Minerals - reduced Tulu Kapi project funding requirement, buy says HotStockRockets


UK Oil & Gas - do not get spiked & is that a dodgy deal I smell? writes Peter Brailey...


Cranswick - future FTSE-100 constituent? Chris Bailey reviews...


Why Amigo Holdings is a zero considers Tom Winnifrith...


BP - new CEO sounding loony... or being very clever?


Novacyt - corona update, this is all about executive greed and share ramping now says Tom Winnifrith


Kingfisher sings a song of recovery... but can do so much more says Chris Bailey


Two UK shares which cannot defy gravity forever says Tom Winnifrith


Metro Bank - potential acquisition two drunks propping each other up?...


Cora Gold - a buy suggests HotStockRockets


Hummingbird Resources - a diversified gold production buy?...


Nearly a 10 bagger tip... but evidence of alternative energy bubble?


Avacta - its covid game soon to be up says Tom Winnifrith...


Columbus Energy - another potential share price catalyst...


Biffa - still brass in muck says Chris Bailey...


Union Jack Oil - for a hat-trick of wins?...


Volvere - 2019 results... & 2020 opportunities...


Hochschild and Hertz... A review of two old timers by Lucian Miers


Big themes still at Playtech says Chris Bailey...


Centamin, Ariana Resouces & Gold - was that the correction, in double-quick time?


Asiamet - negotiations for deal on KSK helps shares, target increased...


Bluebird Merchant Ventures - further project funding progress, increased price target...


Burberry shares remain fashionable to me says Chris Bailey


Imperial Brands - still an Income buy?


Columbus Energy - project & funding update suggest still a buy?


Marks & Spencer - never the same again? Chris Bailey reviews...


OptiBiotix - sales trajectory sparks shares, but still an even stronger buy?...


A whole sector that is a short?...


Tri-Star Resources - sale of first Antimony BUT...


KEFI Minerals - still significant upside offered by its asset base...


OptiBiotix - now Taiwan agreement adds to confidence...


Some gold and gold stock takeaways from Nigel Somerville...


Is Trainline ever going to make sensible profits?


Another reality pill - this time for BT Group


Jadestone Energy has the strength to ride out low oil prices says Gary Newman...


Hummingbird Resources - a buy says HotStockRockets...


Goldplat - quarterly update, production getting back on track...


The markets & sell NASDAQ-listed Credit Acceptance Corporation. From Lucian Miers...


Columbus Energy - shares bounce on Saffron well oil discoveries but remain a buy...


Read and learn from the latest Next plc update says Chris Bailey...


IG Group - why the shares are worth considering writes Malcolm Stacey...


Ariana Resources - a cue to bank massive profits on this share tip? Nigel Somerville reviews...


FirstGroup - activism and the coronavirus. Chris Bailey writes...


Highland Gold Mining - shares bounce on quarterly operational update, but more to come...


Bluebird Merchant Ventures - we tipped at 2.5p now 4.3p to sell, but worth 6p+. Buy...


Will the Oil price rout be repeated (in reverse) in Gold? Nigel Somerville reviews...


The man who predicted negative oil prices reviews where to next...


PZ Cussons - keep washing your hands... and be on board this stock? Chris Bailey writes


OptiBiotix - placing somewhat annoying... but it is for a VERY good reason says Tom Winnifrith


Imperial Brands - an income buy


Sterling Energy a buy? Gary Newman writes...


Ariana Resources - what after a stonking gain in less than four weeks?...


Volvere - shares up on Feb tip after trading update, more to come say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore


Chris Bailey updates on Rolls-Royce & GVC Holdings...


It is also Sage to look at shares that are not romping says Chris Bailey...


Versarien forced to start to come clean - a stink regulators MUST investigate says Tom Winnifrith...


At a time when dividends are being scrapped, Legal & General stands out says Gary Newman


UK Oil & Gas - another 50 percent share price fall the best case scenario? Peter Brailey reviews...


The big banks know what side their bread is buttered. Chris Bailey writes...


Two stocks which look slam dunk zeros considers Tom Winnifrith...


Premier Foods - a buy despite its high level of debt? Gary Newman reviews...


Bluebird Merchant Ventures - an Agreement supporting a positive view? A review from HotStockRockets


Rockrose Energy - a week is a long time says Peter Brailey...


Cineworld - a good shorting opportunity? Gary Newman reviews...


Silver is my metal of choice at the moment says Gary Newman


Golden Prospect Precious Metals - a gold buy


Hurricane Energy - valuation is far too high. I am short says Peter Brailey...


Altyn - mining equipment purchases, gold production increasing...


Versarien - when & at what price the attempted bailout fundraise?


The company playbook on Covid-19...


Doing nothing looks a great move... with a few possible exceptions says Nigel Somerville


As an investor, doing nothing is generally under-rated... but sometimes the facts have changed...


Bowleven - another AIM oil & gas play crunched by the market sell-off, is it a buy?...


A review of my favourite two gold stocks by Nigel Somerville


GVC & Aviva - catching up on some boring but worthy updates (& the continuing Amigo shambles)...


Volvere - a buy suggest Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore


Finablr - the car-crash continues at Red Flag Central. Sell says Nigel Somerville


Aggreko, Ibstock, Ashtead & Robert Walters update - any value amongst them?


Hurricane Energy - more risks? Peter Brailey reviews...


Investment thoughts as fear has racked up in recent days - from Chris Bailey...


Ariana Resources - bank gains? A review from the HotStockRockets team...


Goldplat - interims emphasise return to profit & reasons for further encouragement


Gold set to remain strong & Highland Gold Mining a favourite producer considers Gary Newman


Petra Diamonds - now a sell? Gary Newman reviews...


B.P. Marsh and Partners - a buy say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore


OptiBiotix - now a US and Canada LPLDL distributor agreement...


Yourgene Health - Elucigene DPYD now approved for Australia, adding to confidence


Checking into InterContinental Hotels Group or Whitbread or Carnival instead?


Goldplat - further share buying interest, but still a buy? The HotStockRockets team review...


Pharos Energy - persistent seller providing a buying opportunity considers Gary Newman


RISK WARNING & DISCLAIMER - tips are provided by independent authors via a common carrier platform and do not represent the opinions of does not accept responsibility for or make any warranties in connection with or recommend that you or any third party rely on such information. The information available at and via emails you receive from [email protected] are for your general information and use and are not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by the tipsters or and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions. Trading shares involves the risk of loss. The tipsters and shall not be liable for any losses or other damages incurred. The value of investments can go up or down and the past is not necessarily a guide of future performance.

Five Free Share Tips?

. . . . . . . . . .

Well actually it will be six. One every week day and one on Sunday, each landing with you at 11 AM sharp.

The Details

Unlike other services (which may always have a vested interest) we pride ourselves on our impartiality and cover all small caps including AIM. the Standard List, The Wider Main Market and NEX.

We cover small caps, penny shares, FTSE 350 stocks and blue chips. We look for red hot penny shares, Warren Buffett style value investments with yield and growth stocks. There is no technical analysis in our work just solid fundamental analysis from a team of experts with decades of stockmarket experience.

You will not agree with all we publish but if you are interested in small caps you cannot afford to ignore it either. Yo'll never be charged for the free share tips from Five Free Share Tips and given the star writers involved you know that they will move share prices.

There's no telephone number or postal address required and there is no charge, ever, for your Five Free Share Tips membership. Just free shares tips every day apart from Saturday And each day's share tip will not just be a few thoughts cobbled together but will be detailed analysis from experts.

Our experts do not just earn their living from writing. All own shares. If they own shares in a stock they cover they will declare it and will not sell until after advising a sell to our readers. And why not our tips are so good that why shouldn't our readers put their money where their mouth is?

Don't just take our word for it! Judge us on the calibre of our free share tips and join today to start receiving them from September 1 2017. If you don't like what you get delivered to your inbox unsubscribe and you will never hear from us again. So why not give it a go? Sign Up Now

The Team

We've put together a panel of top tipsters, including:

Tom Winnifrith, in his 27th year writing about shares, noted fraudbuster & dubbed "The maverick Tipster"

Chris Bailey, City whizz kid turned financial guru, rated as one of the top 50 commentators on shares on twitter, founder of Financial Orbit

Steve Moore, has worked with Tom Winnifrith for all bar 3 weeks of his working life - a noted commentator on value stocks

Malcolm Stacey, The Grandfather of Share Blogging, the founder of ShareCrazy & a best selling autthor of stockmarket books

Lucian Miers, the Bard of the Boleyn, one of the UK's best known short sellers

Gary Newman, writes about value investing on AIM, speciality is in share tips on oil and mining companies

Nigel Somerville, The Deputy Sheriff of AIM, an expert in forensic analysis a skill used to bust frauds but also to tip true value investments

The team from HotStockRockets, specialising in AIM and small cap shares which will fly on a three month view

Sign Up Now

UK Investor Show 2018

Remember to book your place at the UK Investor Show 2018. The UK’s top investment show taking place on Saturday 21 April 2018 at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre in Westminster, London. The show will feature a unique line-up of top speakers including Nigel Wray, tech queen Vin Murria, Dave Lenigas, Mark Slater, Tom Winnifrith, Adam Reynolds, Ed, Croft, Nick Leslau Luke Johnson and Dr Johnny Hon as well as 135 exhibiting small cap companies.

To reserve your ticket, visit UK Investor Show.

Risk Warning & Disclaimer

The hot share tips given here are of necessity, general. They cannot relate to the individual circumstances of investors. Anyone considering following the share tips contained here should seek independent advice from a Financial Conduct Authority authorised Stockbroker or Financial Adviser. We cannot be held liable if individuals suffer losses through following share tips contained on this site or emailed out as free share tips. The value of investments can go down as well as up. The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investing in shares can lose you part or all of your capital although the potential returns are theoretically unlimited. The difference between the buy share price and the sell share price for smaller company shares (penny shares) can be significant. Profits from dealing in shares may be liable to tax - the level of tax and bases of relief from tax are subject to change. Changes in the rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value or price of an investment in sterling terms if it is denominated in a foreign currency. Some of the shares recommended on this site will be smaller company shares. By their nature such investments can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares (or 'small caps'/'penny shares'). & its sister site defines a smaller company share as any stock traded on AIM or NEX or which has a market capitalisation of less than £300 million.