Centamin - Endeavour deal off, ups dividend, shares down. Buy says Nigel Somerville

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - I wouldn't buy the shares at 9.25p but Jim Mellon's Agronomics really fascinates me. Listen HERE

Fully-listed Egyptian gold miner Centamin (CEY) - my tip of the year at 117p or so - has announced that the proposed possible offer from Canadian-listed Endeavour is off, after the two sides failed to reach agreement over valuation. Shares in Centamin are off by 8% on the news, to 117p, though we also now know that Centamin’s final dividend will be a tasty 6 US cents, above the previous stated target of at least 4 cents as I had suggested was on the cards. Added to the interim of 4 cents, that makes 10 cents – around 7.7p. At the current share price, that comes out at a yield of 6.58%. The old saying that you don’t buy for the bid has come up trumps again and now, thanks to the disappointment in the market, the shares are cheaper. With a stonking yield, I am raising my stance back up to buy...

Read HERE: Quarto – open offer makes a mockery of Ince’s ‘unfortunate feature of market conditions’ private investor screwing

Readers will know that I am keen on the analysis of Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com and his view of the gold market is that it is once again in a corrective phase, but that it should be treated as an opportunity to buy your favourite gold stocks and hold for what should be an explosive breakout. Recent strength of the yellow metal during the Iran crisis - which, sadly, could reignite at any moment - was not matched by gold stocks and thus his view at that time was gold and gold stocks were going to head south. But not necessarily by all that much – and not for long. My rather less informed view was that gold shot up in a knee-jerk reaction to the crisis, but gold stocks were weak because they were stocks and the market was in no mood to buy stocks then. Now that things have calmed at least a little, gold has come down and we are back around the levels we were at before the crisis – albeit that gold stocks in general are a bit lower. Whether you are clever like Jordan Roy-Byrne or take a simple view of life like me, perhaps we have come to sort of the same conclusion. But Roy-Byrne is incredibly bullish. His view is that US interest rates won’t go up if the economy does well – but will most certainly come down if it does not. For gold bugs that means heads we win (inflation) and tails we win again (lower rates means higher gold). Meanwhile I note much speculation that the Bank of England could move to cut rates this month. Whatever: Roy-Byrne sees gold moving sharply higher, just a bit of patience is required and now is the time to be buying ahead of a big possible move in the weeks or months to come.

Read HERE: Retail-aggedon: TheWorks just about avoids ANOTHER profits warning but CEO walks anyway

And that brings me back to Centamin. Higher gold means fatter margins and, judging by the newly announced final dividend, the cashflow is already rolling in very nicely. The most recent figures were that cost of production was around $860 per ounce, with an all-in cost of $1141 but that was in production-reduced Q3. Year-to-date figures were $742 and $1006, and full-year figures were expected of $675-725 and $890-950. Against a gold price of $1544 and forecast production for this year of 510,000–540,000 ounces you can do the maths. And if the yellow stuff heads up to, say, $1700 Centamin and us shareholders will be quids in.

Corporate updates frenzy – Whitbread, Wood Group & Halfords from Chris Bailey HERE

Having hit 150p last summer during gold’s breakout, I would have thought we should see at least that if the gold-bull comes back for more. And Endeavour could return with a better offer – or someone else could join the corporate action party. Whatever, either on fundamentals (increasing gold price) or corporate action, I am firmly targeting 150p for my shares here. With a juicy dividend to pay us while we wait, Centamin is a buy.

Ariana – Q4 gold production numbers see FY target beaten by 12%. Now, what about that corporate action? Read more from Nigel Somerville HERE

Filed under: Centamin, Agronomics, Quarto, TheWorks, Whitbread, Wood Group, Halfords, Ariana

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