Kingfisher - have I bogged up or is it still a buy? Chris Bailey reviews

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (August update) – Neil Woodford needs a break….and fast says Cynical Bear HERE

We all know UK retail is in a tough spot but problems for Kingfisher (KGF) are ironically not in the UK, where half-year numbers were correctly discussed as a 'solid performance' benefiting from continued growth at Screwfix and the self-inflicting wounds at peers that aided B&Q. The trouble is a 15% fall in underlying pre-tax profit mainly due to a 30% fall in profitability in the group's second-largest market France. Now none of this should be particularly new news in the sense - as I detailed here around a month ago - Kingfisher updated the market on revenue and margin progression. The trouble is...reality is sometimes troubling and comments like 'looking to the full year we remain on track to deliver our strategic milestones for the third year in a row and have put actions in place to support our performance' have not appeared to cut the mustard judging by a 6% fall in the share price. So did I irreparably bog up recommending Kingfisher shares at 3 quid or below in recent months?

Premaitha settles Illumina dispute – this is great news: Buy at up to 15p – target 25p says HotStockRockets HERE

Well on my favoured free cash flow measures life still looks good. The company is still chucking out a high single digit free cash flow yield, of which around 4% is returned as a dividend and a not dis-similar amount has been returned in buybacks. So if you are a dividend muncher, you should be pretty happy. Value investors should not be too hacked off either given the share is trading at around a x10 P/E. Of course what matters is not where a company has been...it is where it is going.

Versarien - how are these collaborations coming along, Neill? Read more from Cynical Bear HERE

The transformation plan One Kingfisher continues to prove up with sensible innovations like unifying ranges and boosting digital competencies. Frankly I would be worried if the company was not naturally doing these sorts of things... I think the fundamental problem though in France is that it is earlier than in the UK with the transformation process AND the French economy has not been gangbusters or (like the UK) having peers shoot themselves in the foot. Nevertheless this is all in the numbers and for it to get worse in France...feels unlikely. The bigger risk I would say would be a revitalised Homebase under private equity ownership aligned with a huge downturn in the UK property and related markets that suckers DIY/renovation activity. There is no doubt the property market is hassled but renovation continues as a solid theme. Meanwhile private equity is going to be running Homebase for cash, so expect a price-following strategy from it.

Gold: are we nearly there yet, Dad? Read HERE

I guess if you wanted to be worried you would point to the slight edging up of the lease adjusted net debt to EBITDAR ratio of x2.5. Obviously "EBITDAR" (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortisation, and Rent) is one of those mildly comic ratios but, as the banks like it, it is worth monitoring. My view would be that the level of free cash flow being generated can get it out of any trouble for the time being. Put it all together, I see the fall as more of an opportunity than a threat. After waiting a sensible period of time for this piece to land and be distributed/absorbed, I am going to buy some more stock.

Malcolm Stacey heads to Russia in search of the Magic Money Tree Part 3. Read HERE

Filed under: Kingfisher, KGF, WPCT, Neil Woodford, Premaitha, Versarien, gold, Malcolm Stacey

Petropavlovsk - POX Hub processing milestone, Buy

12/10/2018

Yourgene - Premaitha as was - interim numbers not impressive, but still a strong buy?

12/07/2018

Numis statement shows why the finnCap IPO is such a stinker says Tom Winnifrith

12/06/2018

Synectics - remains a recovery buy say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore

12/04/2018

Blue Prism Group - argues it is pleased in trading update, but shares still a sell?

11/29/2018

Greencore & Ibstock - a tale of two disposals from Chris Bailey

11/28/2018

Premier Oil could see a swift rise when oil bounces considers Gary Newman

11/27/2018

Optibiotix - Greek deal news via Adam Reynolds keyboard, but better to come. Buy.

11/26/2018

Updated thoughts on Tesla - stay short says Lucian Miers

11/23/2018

Three larger cap buy ideas from Chris Bailey

11/22/2018

AO World - interims argue remains confident, but can high growth rating really be justified?

11/21/2018

Dividend stocks & what to make of the Brexit omnishambles from Nigel Somerville

11/20/2018

Sirius Minerals - patience will pay longer term argues Gary Newman

11/19/2018

Falanx - shares to still more than double?

11/16/2018

Victoria - update on bond fiasco, remains a sell says Lucian Miers

11/14/2018

Glencore looks too cheap considers Gary Newman

11/13/2018

Bowleven - raising my stance back to buy says Nigel Somerville

11/12/2018

First Derivatives - it is smoke & mirrors, keep selling says Lucian Miers

11/09/2018

Buy ITV and Marks & Spencer?

11/08/2018

Imperial Brands - fade the moral outrage & buy says Chris Bailey

11/07/2018

Bushveld Minerals - banking some profit prudent, but still more to come?

11/06/2018

Keep buying any weakness in Centamin as the company is now back on track says Gary Newman

11/05/2018

Horizonte Minerals - I remain confident following feasibility study says Gary Newman

11/02/2018

Obtala - sharpens focus & a fundraising, still a buy says HotStockRockets

11/01/2018

Restaurant Group - what to make of Wagamama acquisition? Chris Bailey reviews

10/31/2018

Cairn Energy will see rapid production growth in the coming years - Buy says Gary Newman

10/30/2018

Barryroe could still come good for Lansdowne Oil - speculative buy says Gary Newman

10/29/2018

WPP advertises a shocker - where now?

10/26/2018

Barclays or Metro Bank - who to fancy in a financials cage fight?

10/25/2018

Whitbread - a core FTSE-100 holding? Chris Bailey reviews

10/24/2018

Anglo Asian Mining - a golden buy?

10/23/2018

Alba Mineral Resources - updates from Wales and Horse Hill, excitement soon to be sparked?

10/22/2018

Shoe Zone - shares jump on ‘ahead of expectations’ update, but still an income buy

10/19/2018

SOCO International - a lot to like at this share price level, buy says Gary Newman

10/18/2018

Ariana Resources - gold production & exploration positives. Nigel Somerville writes

10/17/2018

Shenanigans at First Derivatives Do Not Look Good. Sell says Lucian Miers

10/16/2018

Five large caps for capital growth from Chris Bailey

10/15/2018

Dunelm - am I at danger of buying some frilly curtains? (and more). Chris Bailey writes

10/12/2018

Synectics - a buy for recovery say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore

10/11/2018

Versarien remains a sell for the brave (& First Derivatives). Lucian Miers writes

10/10/2018

Rose Petroleum - a buy says HotStockRockets

10/09/2018

Union Jack Oil - adding to material potential catalysts. Buy says HotStockRockets

10/08/2018

Tlou Energy - a speculative buy considers Gary Newman

10/05/2018

Tesco - shares now too cheap? Chris Bailey reviews

10/04/2018

easyJet & Royal Mail - where now after share price shockers? Chris Bailey reviews

10/03/2018

Goldplat - post full-year results, a buy suggests HotStockRockets

10/02/2018

Columbus Energy Resources - after interims remains a buy says HotStockRockets

10/01/2018

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - updates on projects, remains a buy says HotStockRockets

09/28/2018

Next & Imperial Brands - following news, updated views from Chris Bailey

09/27/2018

Why I would short Time Out Group says Gary Newman

09/26/2018

Randgold merger - what to do? Chris Bailey reviews

09/25/2018

Rockrose Energy - a long term buy and hold suggests Gary Newman

09/24/2018

Premaitha - a buy at up to 15p, target 25p says HotStockRockets

09/21/2018

Kingfisher - have I bogged up or is it still a buy? Chris Bailey reviews

09/20/2018

Is Tate & Lyle or Purecircle a sugar rush stock? Chris Bailey reviews

09/19/2018

Tern - Interim car-crash: SELL says Nigel Somerville

09/18/2018

Atalaya offers good exposure to copper plus has plenty of growth potential says Gary Newman

09/17/2018

Will Morrisons or Biffa be the first to a three quid share price? Chris Bailey reviews

09/14/2018

Aston Martin - a fan of the brand but what of the IPO? Gary Newman reviews

09/13/2018

Koovs - viable or just a money pit? Gary Newman reviews

09/12/2018

No panic with FTSE 100 at a five-month low - some stock ideas from Chris Bailey

09/11/2018

Emerging markets bear market...so buy Ashmore?

09/10/2018

Centrica & Dixons Carphone - investor fear meaning opportunity?

09/07/2018

Breedon - a materials supplier Buy suggests Chris Bailey

09/06/2018

Hurricane Energy - a great deal. Buy says Gary Newman

09/05/2018

Biome Technologies: Strong interims - keep those winners running says Cynical Bear

09/04/2018

Whitbread - a caffeine high. Chris Bailey reviews

09/03/2018

Arcontech - I quite like the look of this one says Cynical Bear

08/31/2018

Fresnillo offers a great way to have some silver exposure says Gary Newman

08/30/2018

Property sector madness - a property company & housebuilders review by Chris Bailey

08/28/2018

EVR Holdings - a long way from justifying its current valuation? Gary Newman reviews

08/24/2018

Headlam - quiet day shocker as I talk about a small cap writes Chris Bailey

08/23/2018

Two larger cap resource names to buy (still) from Chris Bailey

08/22/2018

Ariana Resources - cash flowing from Kiziltepe, a Buy says HotStockRockets

08/21/2018

Mimedx & Purplebricks - sell call updates from Lucian Miers

08/20/2018

BBQs and bingo... Kingfisher or Rank Group a buy? Chris Bailey reviews

08/17/2018

Royal Mail - Ofcom fine...so time to buy? Chris Bailey writes

08/16/2018

Ariana Resources - does Turkish Lira crisis mean stance is downgraded? Er, NO! says Nigel Somerville

08/15/2018

Why I am still short Tesla writes Lucian Miers

08/14/2018

Whitbread & Patisserie Holdings - a Chris Bailey shopping centre visit special

08/13/2018

Why I think Hurricane Energy really is worth nearly 1 billion pounds & maintain a conviction buy

08/10/2018

Quilter - spin-off opportunity? Chris Bailey reviews

08/09/2018

Harvey Nash - should it be recommending the offer? Steve Moore reviews

08/08/2018

Concepta - suck up justifiable anger, still a buy from HotStockRockets

08/07/2018

Tesla Q2 results & doing UK Oil & Gas due diligence. Lucian Miers writes

08/06/2018

BigDish - IPO, is there a meal to be had? The Pizza Hardman Darren Atwater reviews

08/03/2018

Next - when would I snaffle the shares back? reviews Chris Bailey

08/02/2018

HotStockRockets: RedT Energy - some think it could treble!

08/01/2018

Ibstock - a time to be bricking it or not? reviews Chris Bailey

07/31/2018

Tesla - Musk Looks Like He is Losing the Plot says Lucian Miers

07/30/2018

You say Facebook... and I say Fadebook says Chris Bailey

07/27/2018

ITV - strategic direction sensible. Remains good value considers Chris Bailey

07/26/2018

Woodford Patient Capital Trust - how does Neil Woodford get out of the mess?

07/25/2018

Long, wrong and deliriously happy - Sosandar still cheap! Nigel Somerville writes

07/24/2018

Versarien - a case of Deja Vu. Outstanding Short Value argues Lucian Miers

07/23/2018

Versarien - Cynical Bear initiates coverage with a sell

07/20/2018

Barclays - a buy, if common sense prevails? Chris Bailey writes

07/19/2018

Block Energy - a speculative buy considers Gary Newman

07/18/2018

Telit - agrees automotive business sale, shares also still a sell says Lucian Miers

07/17/2018

Columbus Energy - following acquisition news an even stronger buy says HotStockRockets

07/16/2018

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