Ferrexpo - time for another go says Lucian Miers...

Tom Winnifrith chatting to Carson Block of Muddy Waters about Burford & other matters – pre-register for the podcast for download HERE

Back in May I suggested buying shares in Ferrexpo (FXPO) at 207p on the basis that the sharp fall in the share price on the news of the resignation of the auditor was overdone and that a rally to 250p was likely. The good news for those that saw 250p as a target was that it was hit in short order, with the shares going on to 285p...

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: a statistic that damns the AIM Casino as the failure it is. Listen HERE

I sold at 250p, but the bad news for those who bought and held is that the shares now trade below 200p. The reason for this is twofold. Firstly, iron ore prices have declined recently as fears of a global slowdown mount, depressing demand for steel. This is clearly a concern and H1’s excellent results may well not be repeated. The forward price for its Fe 62% pellets for December delivery has fallen to $100 per tonne against $121 at the end of July, but, as the company states, this compares with an average of $70 per tonne in 2018 and $92 in H1 2019. Secondly, contained in the company’s statement on 30thAugust confirming the conclusion of the Independent Review (into the dubious destination of funds earmarked for Ukrainian charities) was the following ominous statement;

The IRC has now completed its work. The Company is aware of various tax and other investigations in Ukraine in connection with the above matters. The monitoring of these, and any other ongoing matters arising from the report, will now be taken forward by the Committee of Independent Directors.  The Company will keep the market informed of any developments, as appropriate.

Redemptions Watch: better news for Neil but the queue of disasters is lining up says Nigel Somerville HERE

It’s that “other” which should worry investors as the tax issues have been well flagged and, on their own, should be easily manageable. Ferrexpo paid out dividends of 19.8 cents in the last 12 months, giving a net yield of over 5.5% at the current rate (the Swiss pinch 30% in withholding tax). Granted one third of that was a special dividend over and above the final and interim but the company makes a habit of these special dividends having paid out 8 of them since 2013.

Barclays and Lloyds fess up to new PPI horrors...but that's fine says Chris Bailey HERE

Given the cyclical nature of its business and the jurisdiction in which it operates, an investment in Ferrexpo clearly carries significant risks but I think the current share price more than compensates for these – offering also, as do all dollar earners quoted in sterling, a decent hedge against either a comrade Corbyn administration or a no deal Brexit which presumably would trash the currency; in the first case permanently and in the second, at least temporarily. For these reasons, and mindful of the risks, I have had another go – again with a 250p target.

Read HERE: Eddie Stobart Logistics – what about that interest free £475k related party loan to subsidiary company directors?

Filed under: Ferrexpo, Carson Block, Burford, AIM Casino, Barclays, Lloyds, Eddie Stobart Logistics

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