Ariana Resources - gold production & exploration positives. Nigel Somerville writes

Is Neil Woodford running short of cash? Read more from Nigel Somerville HERE

AIM-listed Turkish gold miner Ariana Resources (AAU) has again announced record gold production from its joint-venture Kiziltepe plant, part of the Red Rabbit project, during its third quarter this year. Production is up to 7,588 ounces of gold (plus 70,346 oz of silver) for Q3 to bring the total for the year so far to 19,625 oz – as against the guidance of 20,000 oz for the full year. Way to go! If they keep that up, the total for the year will be in excess of 27,000 oz – a classic case of underpromising and overdelivering.

Crest Nicholson warn on profits and margins...as predicted. Chris Bailey updates HERE

I had predicted back in April that the guidance figure could be easily beaten, and that now looks to be a slam-dunk certainty. Indeed, it is black and white for the company states: The Company will exceed its full year production guidance of 20,000 ounces of gold, having achieved a total of 19,625 ounces by the end of Q3. The figure offered for the total ore processed is down on last month (46,214 tonnes vs 49,325 tonnes) but we learn that this was only to 24 September. If we assume the processing continued at the same rate for the last 6 days of September the processed ore figure comes in at 57,767 tonnes  - a sharp increase on Q2 of 17%. So the increased production was not just from mining the highest grade ore: it seems that the plant is performing very robustly. My analysis had suggested 23,000 oz gold would be produced. Now I think that even if there is a problem we should see 25,000 oz and perhaps as much as 27,000. It is all good. We are also told that the average head grade of ore processed was 4.43 grams per tonne of gold – a decline on the 4.77 grams per tonne of Q2. Meanwhile the gold recovery rates were 93.9% as against 94.3% for Q2. So this increase in production is because the plant has successfully processed more material.

TLA Worldwide – when you need a Nomad desperately, ‘who you gonna call?’ Read HERE

We will have to wait until early November for the financial effect of these numbers. Gold has been weak through Q3 (although it seems to  be picking up now). On the other hand, the production costs (labour etc) is paid in Turkish Lira which fell sharply during August and seems to have settled at around $0.16-0.17 having been $0.22 or higher during Q2. Q2 showed operating cash costs of just $371 per ounce of gold produced, against an average realised gold price of $1292 (which includes an adjustment for by-production silver). Thus, with the Lira down again I would imagine that the decline of the gold price will be easily eaten up by reduced costs - and that bodes well for Ariana’s cash balances as JV loans are repaid. We also don’t know how much debt has fallen due under loans to the JV from Turkiye Finans Bank during the quarter. But my eye is on April 2020, when the bank will have been settled and half of the free cashflow starts rolling in to Ariana.

Creightons - a penny share buy say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore HERE

That is now less than 18 months away, and I still reckon on up to £7.7 million a year to Ariana, yet Ariana is capitalised at just £12.7 million with resources which could last another 13 years. As we edge closer to April 2020 the prospect of dilutive placings edges away, even if Ariana decides to spend heavily on the Hot Gold Corridor around Salinbas in Eastern Turkey (further positive exploration results just announced). Ariana may be out of favour, but its day will come. What I hope is that the management show the same patience as shareholders and don’t go on a discounted placing fest to expand. It does look as though the script is being followed. I continue to target a share price of 2p (at least).

Warmer, Wetter Weather Does Not Fill Me With Hope for this Great Designer says Malcolm Stacey HERE

Filed under: Ariana Resources, Neil Woodford, Crest Nicholson, TLA Worldwide, Creightons, Malcolm Stacey

Petropavlovsk - POX Hub processing milestone, Buy

12/10/2018

Yourgene - Premaitha as was - interim numbers not impressive, but still a strong buy?

12/07/2018

Numis statement shows why the finnCap IPO is such a stinker says Tom Winnifrith

12/06/2018

Synectics - remains a recovery buy say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore

12/04/2018

Blue Prism Group - argues it is pleased in trading update, but shares still a sell?

11/29/2018

Greencore & Ibstock - a tale of two disposals from Chris Bailey

11/28/2018

Premier Oil could see a swift rise when oil bounces considers Gary Newman

11/27/2018

Optibiotix - Greek deal news via Adam Reynolds keyboard, but better to come. Buy.

11/26/2018

Updated thoughts on Tesla - stay short says Lucian Miers

11/23/2018

Three larger cap buy ideas from Chris Bailey

11/22/2018

AO World - interims argue remains confident, but can high growth rating really be justified?

11/21/2018

Dividend stocks & what to make of the Brexit omnishambles from Nigel Somerville

11/20/2018

Sirius Minerals - patience will pay longer term argues Gary Newman

11/19/2018

Falanx - shares to still more than double?

11/16/2018

Victoria - update on bond fiasco, remains a sell says Lucian Miers

11/14/2018

Glencore looks too cheap considers Gary Newman

11/13/2018

Bowleven - raising my stance back to buy says Nigel Somerville

11/12/2018

First Derivatives - it is smoke & mirrors, keep selling says Lucian Miers

11/09/2018

Buy ITV and Marks & Spencer?

11/08/2018

Imperial Brands - fade the moral outrage & buy says Chris Bailey

11/07/2018

Bushveld Minerals - banking some profit prudent, but still more to come?

11/06/2018

Keep buying any weakness in Centamin as the company is now back on track says Gary Newman

11/05/2018

Horizonte Minerals - I remain confident following feasibility study says Gary Newman

11/02/2018

Obtala - sharpens focus & a fundraising, still a buy says HotStockRockets

11/01/2018

Restaurant Group - what to make of Wagamama acquisition? Chris Bailey reviews

10/31/2018

Cairn Energy will see rapid production growth in the coming years - Buy says Gary Newman

10/30/2018

Barryroe could still come good for Lansdowne Oil - speculative buy says Gary Newman

10/29/2018

WPP advertises a shocker - where now?

10/26/2018

Barclays or Metro Bank - who to fancy in a financials cage fight?

10/25/2018

Whitbread - a core FTSE-100 holding? Chris Bailey reviews

10/24/2018

Anglo Asian Mining - a golden buy?

10/23/2018

Alba Mineral Resources - updates from Wales and Horse Hill, excitement soon to be sparked?

10/22/2018

Shoe Zone - shares jump on ‘ahead of expectations’ update, but still an income buy

10/19/2018

SOCO International - a lot to like at this share price level, buy says Gary Newman

10/18/2018

Ariana Resources - gold production & exploration positives. Nigel Somerville writes

10/17/2018

Shenanigans at First Derivatives Do Not Look Good. Sell says Lucian Miers

10/16/2018

Five large caps for capital growth from Chris Bailey

10/15/2018

Dunelm - am I at danger of buying some frilly curtains? (and more). Chris Bailey writes

10/12/2018

Synectics - a buy for recovery say Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore

10/11/2018

Versarien remains a sell for the brave (& First Derivatives). Lucian Miers writes

10/10/2018

Rose Petroleum - a buy says HotStockRockets

10/09/2018

Union Jack Oil - adding to material potential catalysts. Buy says HotStockRockets

10/08/2018

Tlou Energy - a speculative buy considers Gary Newman

10/05/2018

Tesco - shares now too cheap? Chris Bailey reviews

10/04/2018

easyJet & Royal Mail - where now after share price shockers? Chris Bailey reviews

10/03/2018

Goldplat - post full-year results, a buy suggests HotStockRockets

10/02/2018

Columbus Energy Resources - after interims remains a buy says HotStockRockets

10/01/2018

Bluebird Merchant Ventures - updates on projects, remains a buy says HotStockRockets

09/28/2018

Next & Imperial Brands - following news, updated views from Chris Bailey

09/27/2018

Why I would short Time Out Group says Gary Newman

09/26/2018

Randgold merger - what to do? Chris Bailey reviews

09/25/2018

Rockrose Energy - a long term buy and hold suggests Gary Newman

09/24/2018

Premaitha - a buy at up to 15p, target 25p says HotStockRockets

09/21/2018

Kingfisher - have I bogged up or is it still a buy? Chris Bailey reviews

09/20/2018

Is Tate & Lyle or Purecircle a sugar rush stock? Chris Bailey reviews

09/19/2018

Tern - Interim car-crash: SELL says Nigel Somerville

09/18/2018

Atalaya offers good exposure to copper plus has plenty of growth potential says Gary Newman

09/17/2018

Will Morrisons or Biffa be the first to a three quid share price? Chris Bailey reviews

09/14/2018

Aston Martin - a fan of the brand but what of the IPO? Gary Newman reviews

09/13/2018

Koovs - viable or just a money pit? Gary Newman reviews

09/12/2018

No panic with FTSE 100 at a five-month low - some stock ideas from Chris Bailey

09/11/2018

Emerging markets bear market...so buy Ashmore?

09/10/2018

Centrica & Dixons Carphone - investor fear meaning opportunity?

09/07/2018

Breedon - a materials supplier Buy suggests Chris Bailey

09/06/2018

Hurricane Energy - a great deal. Buy says Gary Newman

09/05/2018

Biome Technologies: Strong interims - keep those winners running says Cynical Bear

09/04/2018

Whitbread - a caffeine high. Chris Bailey reviews

09/03/2018

Arcontech - I quite like the look of this one says Cynical Bear

08/31/2018

Fresnillo offers a great way to have some silver exposure says Gary Newman

08/30/2018

Property sector madness - a property company & housebuilders review by Chris Bailey

08/28/2018

EVR Holdings - a long way from justifying its current valuation? Gary Newman reviews

08/24/2018

Headlam - quiet day shocker as I talk about a small cap writes Chris Bailey

08/23/2018

Two larger cap resource names to buy (still) from Chris Bailey

08/22/2018

Ariana Resources - cash flowing from Kiziltepe, a Buy says HotStockRockets

08/21/2018

Mimedx & Purplebricks - sell call updates from Lucian Miers

08/20/2018

BBQs and bingo... Kingfisher or Rank Group a buy? Chris Bailey reviews

08/17/2018

Royal Mail - Ofcom fine...so time to buy? Chris Bailey writes

08/16/2018

Ariana Resources - does Turkish Lira crisis mean stance is downgraded? Er, NO! says Nigel Somerville

08/15/2018

Why I am still short Tesla writes Lucian Miers

08/14/2018

Whitbread & Patisserie Holdings - a Chris Bailey shopping centre visit special

08/13/2018

Why I think Hurricane Energy really is worth nearly 1 billion pounds & maintain a conviction buy

08/10/2018

Quilter - spin-off opportunity? Chris Bailey reviews

08/09/2018

Harvey Nash - should it be recommending the offer? Steve Moore reviews

08/08/2018

Concepta - suck up justifiable anger, still a buy from HotStockRockets

08/07/2018

Tesla Q2 results & doing UK Oil & Gas due diligence. Lucian Miers writes

08/06/2018

BigDish - IPO, is there a meal to be had? The Pizza Hardman Darren Atwater reviews

08/03/2018

Next - when would I snaffle the shares back? reviews Chris Bailey

08/02/2018

HotStockRockets: RedT Energy - some think it could treble!

08/01/2018

Ibstock - a time to be bricking it or not? reviews Chris Bailey

07/31/2018

Tesla - Musk Looks Like He is Losing the Plot says Lucian Miers

07/30/2018

You say Facebook... and I say Fadebook says Chris Bailey

07/27/2018

ITV - strategic direction sensible. Remains good value considers Chris Bailey

07/26/2018

Woodford Patient Capital Trust - how does Neil Woodford get out of the mess?

07/25/2018

Long, wrong and deliriously happy - Sosandar still cheap! Nigel Somerville writes

07/24/2018

Versarien - a case of Deja Vu. Outstanding Short Value argues Lucian Miers

07/23/2018

Versarien - Cynical Bear initiates coverage with a sell

07/20/2018

Barclays - a buy, if common sense prevails? Chris Bailey writes

07/19/2018

Block Energy - a speculative buy considers Gary Newman

07/18/2018

Telit - agrees automotive business sale, shares also still a sell says Lucian Miers

07/17/2018

Columbus Energy - following acquisition news an even stronger buy says HotStockRockets

07/16/2018

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