I enjoyed contributing and participating in the MineProphets online conference and I hope those of you who purchased entry tickets came away with multiple ideas and a few new tips to consider. Certainly, there was a bunch of pro-gold calls but - as Tom noted in his post-conference bearcast - such bias is kind of inevitable given the nature of the conference and the speakers. I would double reiterate Tom's observation that the institutional investor world is still today - on average - very far behind on the gold call...
As I noted in our macro chat, I recall doing an institutional investor presentation at the turn of the year where I slipped in my pro-gold call right at the end...because I guessed I might lose the audience if I went too early with the 'gold bug' story (I saw something similar a year or two previously with a discussion on Brexit). And naturally when the big boys love up gold, you enjoy the early impact of this and then you cite the 'greater fool' theory and exit a chunk of your position when it becomes way too consensus. A good guide - using the early '80s as an insight - is when every wealth manager is upfront in having it in their model portfolios. I will not embarrass the large, well-known wealth management group which maintained a 50% exposure for all of the first half of the 1980s anticipating a re-run of the 1970s precious metals largesse. Anyhow, higher prices push up not just demand but also supply. And I had a wry smile when I read that a large Canadian gold miner - Yamana (TSX - YRI) - has applied for a standard listing and expects its shares to trade on the LSE in a couple of months or so.
And one of the reasons cited? There is a 'void' in London for a 'pure-play gold company producing 1m ounces a year in friendly mining jurisdictions'. There is some truth in this. After all my fave Randgold Resources left the index after being subsumed into Barrick Gold (TSX - ABX), another primarily Canadian-listed name (which happens to be my top sector position) and people can take or leave stocks such as Polymetal (POLY) with its Russian focus (another stock I have both happily owned and written about). However...it does make you wonder if this is just another one of these opportunistic marketing plays to open up yet another line of potential capital raising if required in the future.
I once owned Yamana as an institutional investor and let me just say - in my opinion - it is no Randgold/Barrick Gold. Still a rising tide lifts all boats but I think if you want to finesse your gold miner stock selection, you can do a lot better elsewhere.
Filed under: Yamana, gold, Avacta, Eve Sleep, Maestrano, Kingfisher, David Lenigas
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